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October 13, 2016

In addition, Sports Profit System has already released two football selections for the weekend!
 

Take Washington Nationals (-148) on the ML against LA Dodgers risking 4.44% to win 3%.
(Scherzer must start for wager to have action)

It's time for Game 5. An exciting winner-take-all matchup and the only one that was needed in this year's division series! The other NLDS game was decided in 4 games while both ALCS matchups resulted in sweeps! So will it be the Dodger blue that punches its ticket to the next round, to join the Blue Jays, Indians and Cubs, or will it be the Nats? We believe it is the latter as the hosts have several important advantages.

Max Scherzer takes the hill for Washington in this decisive showdown and he's a pitcher that can be counted on. That's because he not only has the physical attributes to succeed but also the personality to relish the big stage. The dominant ace is a Cy Young award candidate once again and has put together another marvellous season, despite a fairly poor start. He's not one to shy away from high-pressure situations. Furthermore, he's already played in big games such as this in the past, like his spell with the Tigers in 2010-2014 which saw him pitch in Game 6 of the ALDS one year against the Red Sox!

Rich Hill might be older than Max Scherzer but in terms of big game experience and post-season appearances, he takes a backseat. Therefore, he actually doesn't have the 'veteran' or 'experience' edge in this contest but that's not what will likely hold him back. What we believe could be to his detriment is the fact that he gets the ball on short rest tonight. For the first time this season, he pitches after only 4 days! That may not seem like a big deal, but it often is for pitchers as they love their routine and are used to taking the hill every fifth day. For a 36-year old, that additional day of rest can make all the difference. Even if Rich Hill isn't affected by this however, his past record against the Nats leaves a lot to be desired. Consider the fact that he was the starter in Game 2 in this series and was hit for 4 runs in just over 4 innings! Washington bats got to him as recently as October 9th and we believe they can do so again tonight.

The fact that this game is played in D.C is not of any help to the Los Angeles club either. Let's not forget that Dodgers were less than even mediocre away from home all season. They had a losing road record with just 39 wins, compared to 44 losses! The Nats, on the other hand, dominated the division and finished with the second best record in the National League, thanks largely to their impressive home performances. They went 51-32 at Nationals Park and punished the vast majority of visiting opponents. If the bullpen doesn't blow away the lead, we believe Scherzer will outduel and likely outlast Rich Hill as Washington makes history by advancing to the NLCS!

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Nationals are 38-30 coming off a loss.
  • Nationals won 10 of 14 games as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range! 
  • Dodgers are just 5-11 over the last 3 seasons as a road underdog in the +125 to +150 range!
  • Nationals are 36-21 after a day of rest over the last 3 years.



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