October 5, 2016
Two college football picks have been posted. One is an early release, a day in advance, for Thursday!
Take Georgia Southern -7 spread against Arkansas State for 3% of the bankroll. (Wednesday)
The defending Sun Belt Champs, the Arkansas State Red Wolves are off to a surprising 0-4 both SU and ATS start to the season and are coming off their worst loss of the year in their last contest, a 28-23 setback at home at the hands of FCS school Central Arkansas. While many expect the week off to allow the Red Wolves time to collect themselves, we believe this is the wrong time to be meeting up with Sun Belt powerhouse, Georgia Southern.
The last time we saw the Southern Eagles, they were in a shootout with the undefeated Western Michigan Broncos, ultimately falling 49-31. Georgia Southern is not a team that loses many games and have historically bounced back strong in their following contest. They are a perfect 7-0 SU and 5-1 ATS coming off a loss since joining the FBS! With an extra week to prepare for an Arkansas State defense that is surrendering nearly 500 yards of offense per game, we expect the Eagle to get back to what they do best and that is run the football. While their offense is somewhat one dimensional, they have a dynamic ground game that is ranked 4th in the country, averaging nearly 317 yards per contest! Against a Red Wolves stop unit that is giving up 239 on the ground, Georgia Southern should be able to control the tempo of this game and the clock while chewing up yards on the ground.
A key difference in this matchup has been both teams’ production on third down this season. Arkansas State is currently worst in the conference in third down production as they only have a 24.6 percent conversion rate. On the other hand, the Southern Eagles currently lead the conference in third down conversions at an impressive 52.6 percent. The battle of the trenches should also side with the visitors. Georgia Southern's offensive line is extremely proficient in opening up running lanes while their defensive front 7 in known for putting pressure on the QB and stopping the run. If there is an area where the Eagles are weak, it is against the pass, however there is a QB controversy brewing with the Red Wolves between Chad Voytik and Justice Hansen. Hansen is the more proficient passer, completely 58% of his passes, but offers very little in way of mobility. If the Eagles can put pressure on him in the pocket, they should be able to force him into mistakes, Hansen threw 2 picks against the Central Arkansas defense and Georgia Southern is a step above in competition.
While its certainly tough to imagine the Red Wolves starting 0-5 to start the season, this is not the same dominant team as in years past. Arkansas State will need to play mistake free football in order to stay competitive in this game and given the way they have been playing on both sides of the ball, we simply don't see that happening. Georgia Southern is the much better team on both sides of the ball and we expect them to easily win this contest by double digits which makes this a solid line to lay in what should be a bounce back performance tonight.
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