November 21, 2016
Another highly profitable week has come and gone!
The best value comes in a low profile college hoops matchup, in our opinion, tonight.
Take Columbia -1 spread (buy half a point) against Quinnipiac for 3% of the bankroll.
This is a classic case of line movement where we believe the odds have over-adjusted and because of the big shift, it has now opened up value on the other side. The oddsmakers had opened up Columbia as (heavy) -4.5 point favorites and throughout the early part of the day, it has been bet down to right around a pick'em. We believe the oddsmakers had it right at the onset and this line has not simply shifted too much to pass up on.
While it may seem like Columbia will be at a disadvantage tonight having to play on the road, this is actually a place where the Lions have becoming extremely comfortable. This will be their third straight road game to start the season and dating back to last year have won 6 of their last 9 on the highway. Columbia will have the advantage in numerous areas in this contest and those advantages should outweigh the fact they will be playing in a hostile environment.
As a team, the Columbia Lions are averaging 69 points per contest on the year. They have three players who are averaging in double figures as Nate Hickman paces the team with 13.5 points and three rebounds per game. Luke Petrasek and Mike Smith are the other double digit scores on the team as they shoot 44.4 percent from the floor as a team. They have been solid from the perimeter, sinking 38 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, however where they have been most proficient has been at the charity strip. They are hitting nearly 80% of their shot from the line and in what should be a closely contested matchup, this game could be decided by whichever team can make their shots from the line at the end of the game.
The Lions have also been solid at defending the perimeter this season holding teams to just 28% from long range. That could be problematic for the Bobcats who have become accustomed to firing away from downtown. The problem there is that Quinnipiac is not the best rebounding team and will likely have a disadvantage on the board in this contest. If their first shots are not falling, they will have a hard time getting second chance opportunities.
This will be just Quinnipiac's second game of the season with their first being played on Nov 12th. They have had 9 days of rest in between contests which, this early in the season is going to be extremely determinantal to their performance. They were completely hammered by Vermont in their season opener and have a lot of issues on the defensive end that need to be addressed. The only way for teams to shore up issues is to get time on the floor in actual in-game experience. With this much time off, it could be considered that this is the Bobcat's second chance at a season opener. We expect to see a lot of miscommunication and chemistry issues in this contest tonight an that should be enough to allow Columbia to come away with the victory.
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