November 18, 2016
There is one basketball pick tonight.
In addition, a total of 4 football selections have been released for Saturday!
Take St. John's +7 spread against Minnesota for 3% of the bankroll.
Minnesota is a big-named program that has certainly fell on hard time over the last couple of seasons. They are in the early stages of rebuilding and even though they stand at 3-0 on the season, they have a long way to go still before they can completely be trusted, especially on their home court. They have benefited from playing a somewhat manageable slate of game to start the season and have enjoyed three straight games on their home floor. That being said, their play during lesser opponents still have left something to be desired and shows the inexperience that this team still has. In their win over Mount St Mary's they shot just 14-23 from the line (60.9%) and turned the ball over 16 times. A performance like that against the Red Storm and Minnesota will have an extremely difficult time covering this number.
Like their counterparts, the St John Red Storm is a storied program that has fallen from grace over the last few seasons. They went 8-24 in coach Chris Mullin's first season including 1-17 in conference play. While it will likely take some time for this team to get back to the prominence they once had, we do believe Mullins will take them a step in the right direction this year. Given their poor performance last season, there is no doubt some skepticism and expectation that their performance will carry over this season. There is no doubt that the perception of this team is low and we believe that has played a factor in this line. These teams are much closer in terms of talent and ability than this line reflects. The oddsmakers have inflated this line given that it's on Minnesota's home court, however we believe their confidence is just a bit too premature.
St John's is currently averaging 88.5 points per game while shooting 52.6% from the field. What has been most impressive has been their ability beyond the arc where they are hitting at a 45.8 percent clip. While we don't expect that percentage to hold up, the fact that they have shown their ability to hit the long ball will prevent the Gophers from breaking this game open. St John's has shown to be the better defensive team thus far, holding their opponents to just 57 points per game. This is a matchup between two young teams that will likely come down to which team makes the least amount of critical errors. Minnesota will have an advantage playing on their home court, but we expect the Johnnies to keep things competitive and potentially challenge for the outright victory. This early in the season anything can happen and an upset is not out of the question. That being said, St John's should be able to keep this game competitive and even if they don't win this matchup outright, we believe the points have value and are likely to come into play.
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