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November 14, 2016

There is one pick tonight and it is an above average 4% wager!
 

Take Cincinnati Bengals (PK) against New York Giants for 4% of the bankroll.

The Bengals haven’t really been in a position to make an opposing offense one-dimensional this year, but the New York Giants head into Monday night having done a good job of doing it to themselves. The Giants haven’t rushed for even 80 yards as a team since Sept. 25 and are the league’s worst running offense in the game, averaging just 68.2 yards per game! They've had 80 or more rushing yards in only one game so far this season. They are tied for 29th in yards per carry, at just 3.2! The Bengals aren’t great at stopping the run but with the Giants already being down to their backup running backs and having lost guard Justin Pugh, who could be considered one of the top five linemen in the league through the first half, it’s important for the Bengals to key in on this obvious hole in the Giants game if they want to walk out of this one with a victory.

With Eli Manning and the Giants being so one-dimensional, we expect Marvin Lewis to put pressure on their offensive line with a very blitz happy attack. The Giant's offense is based on timing and accuracy. They have some playmaking receivers on the team, however plays take time to develop. Manning prefers to have a clean pocket and likes to get the ball out early to his receivers. With pressure in his face, he has been notoriously prone to mistakes and has had an issue with interceptions in his career. If the Bengals can 'dirty' up the pocket and force Manning into quick decisions, with their lack of a rushing attack, it will make it extremely difficult for the Giants to move the ball.

The Bengals should also have the motivational edge in this contest. They are coming off a bye week and have had an extra week to prepare for this contest. Prior to their bye, they played in what could be considered one of the worst games of the season as they traveled to London to face off against the Washington Redskins which resulted in a 27-27 tie. Lewis was extremely vocal after that loss, calling his team out for penalties, turnovers, lack of concentration. We expect that during the off week that he has drilled his team on the importance of fundamentals during the game. We expect to see a much more fundamentally Bengals team when they step on the field in this contest.

In this league, it's extremely difficult for teams to win without balance. In order to be successful, a team must be well rounded and not one-dimensional. The Giants are one-dimensional. While they have had success in the early going, sitting at 5-3, if they had not caught a couple of lucky breaks in their games, they could easily be sitting at 3-5 on the season. The Bengals on the other hand are a team that is much better than their current 3-4 record indicates. The good thing for them however is that the AFC North is in complete shambles at the moment and the division title is still within their grasp. If they want to contend however, they need to start putting wins together and it needs to start tonight under the bright lights of Monday Night Football.

The Bengals struggles on Monday Night have been highly documented, however we believe this is the night where records are meant to be broken. We expect Andy Dalton to rise to the occasion under the bright lights of primetime and lead his team to a much-needed victory that puts them back in contention in the AFC North division. The Giants have been fortunate to win 3 in a row and got a TD out of every red zone trip last Sunday. That is highly unlikely to continue. This is the Bengals' first game of the month and they will be fresh and ready to come out and prove doubters wrong. They are the more rested team and it could show in the second half.




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