November 6, 2016
There are two picks on Sunday.
#1: Take Philadelphia Eagles +3 spread against NY Giants for 3% of the bankroll.
With a win this afternoon, the Giants will have a chance to extend their longest winning streak in the last three seasons, however it won't be easy as they face a Philadelphia team that has seemingly had their number in recent meetings. Even though they are on the road this afternoon, that shouldn't bother an Eagles team who has had a huge amount of success playing in this venue. Philadelphia has won 5 of the 6 games that have been at MetLife Stadium and have put together a 13-4 record against the Giants which dates back to the 2008 season!
The Giants are coming off a bye week after defeating the LA Rams in London in their last matchup. Having a week off can often give teams a much-needed break to refocus their efforts and heal nagging injuries. While it can be looked at as a positive, it can also have a negative impact on teams who have built a solid amount of momentum. The Giants had been playing well prior to their week off so it will be interesting to see if their time off has affected their play on the field. Against a division rival who will undoubtedly be motivated for this contest, especially after their late game collapse last week against the Dallas Cowboys, the Giants better hope they do not come into this contest rusty.
While the Eagles offense has been inconsistent at times this season, they have still proven their ability to put points on the board largely in part due to their stellar play on both defense and special teams. They have returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and rank near the top of the NFL in turnover margin which could be the deciding factor in this contest. The Giants, for the most part, are a one-dimensional team who likes to throw the ball downfield. With no true semblance of a running game, the Philadelphia defence will, in all likelihood, be looking to defend the pass and that could spell bad news for the Giants. Interceptions, fumbles and turnovers in general have plagued this Giants team and if the Eagles can continue to win the turnover battle as they have for much of the season, they will be able to not only keep this game competitive, but potentially challenge for the outright victory.
We don't believe that the Eagles are getting enough respect in this contest but given the fact that they are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings with the Giants and the road team has covered 15 of the last 22 meetings, gives the Eagles a lot of value in this contest, especially now that they are receiving points. Divisional matchups have a history of being closely contested games and we don't expect this one to be any different. This will likely be a back and forth contest with either team capable of pulling out a victory which makes the points all the more valuable as they could certainly come into play.
#2: Take Cleveland Browns +7.5 spread against Dallas Cowboys for 3% of the bankroll.
This is the type of matchup that looks 'easy' on paper but is likely to be anything but on the field! Dallas is coming off an emotional overtime win over division rivals, the Eagles in front of a national audience. Under the bright lights of prime time Sunday Night Football, they did the job and even managed to cover the spread thanks to an OT touchdown! Now they head to Cleveland to face a winless non-conference opponent in a game that could be a lot more difficult than they imagine.
That's because while the Browns are desperate to record their first 'W' of the season and will give anything to do so, the Cowboys could well be complacent. Some of the players may false believe that simply showing up will be enough and that giving 100% isn't necessary in this particular contest. That is rarely true at this level since mistakes are punished and a lack of concentration leads to needless penalty flags and other miscues. If the team they call America's Team entertains that notion, and it's not impossible that they do so, given their early season success and the number of rookies in their ranks, Cleveland might just shock the world and come out victorious!
The Browns are a live underdog in this spot in our opinion and can win the game. Even if they don't however, they should do enough to stay within one score. This is a generous spread thanks to the vastly different public perception of these two clubs. The fact that Dallas not only tops the division with a 6-1 record but has also been a spread-covering machine combined with their popularity and enormous fanbase has inflated this line by a good few points! The value is on the unfancied hosts in this game.
Look for Hue Jackson, who's still searching for his first win as Cleveland boss to take advantage of the key intangibles in his team's favor on Sunday afternoon. The Cowboys are in a classic letdown spot and have covered the spread only twice over the last 11 times when they were road favorites by a TD or more in a non-divisional game! This is the type of matchup where 'surprises' happen. Jason Garrett's Cowboys are a good team but they are being a bit overestimated by everyone including the oddmakers right now! We believe they'll fall short of covering this spread as brave Cleveland backers cash in tickets. WR Corey Coleman should be back in the lineup and will give the Browns offense a big boost, especially as his presence on the field will create more room for Terrelle Pryor, a former QB converted to receiver, who's having an outstanding season! The public is all over the Cowboys and wants nothing to do with Cleveland and while that might generally be a good idea, we believe it is a mistake this Sunday.
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