November 3, 2016
There's one pick tonight.
Take the UNDER 50.5 total points in Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Atlanta Falcons for 3% of the bankroll.
The betting public is hoping to watch a complete shootout on Monday Night Football and is wagering like it. Unfortunately for them, we don't believe it's likely for 'Over' tickets to cash in this one. This will still be a relatively high-scoring game but there may be more field goal attempts than most anticipate. Sharp money is on the 'Under' in this matchup which is why the total has moved from 52 points down to this number despite the vast majority of people wagering on the opposite!
Matt Ryan and the Falcons have been involved in some very high-scoring games this season. That doesn't, however, mean that they will continue to produce those numbers. There are a few different factors that lead us to believe this total could fall just short of the 50 points mark. One of those reasons is that both sides have better defenses than often given credit for. It's not that either one possesses a shut-down unit but we don't see both giving up 20-30 points neither. It's more likely that one team has its offensive rhythm and does good damage while the other struggles to move the chains. The total for this game should have been set around the 46-48 points mark in our opinion.
Julio Jones was clearly hurt on Sunday and is listed as 'probable' on the injury report. We expect him to take the field and pose a problem or two for this Tampa Bay secondary but we don't see him being at this best. His movement was certainly limited over the weekend and it wouldn't surprise us if Atlanta used him primarily as a decoy tonight. Mohamed Sanu had an excellent game against the Packers and will likely have to put in another great shift for the Falcons tonight. Sanu, while talented, has rarely been consistent in his NFL career, a fact that Cincinnati Bengals would attest to. We don't see him necessarily doing as much damage as he did against Green Bay and with Julio Jones looking less than 100%, this offense isn't at its best. Let's not forget that talented RB Tevin Coleman is expected to miss this contest! And he's not the only one, given that TE Jacob Tamme finds himself on the sidelines as well.
As for the Buccaneers, they are also missing some key components of their offense. Perhaps, what's been most troubling to them however is the inaccuracies of kicker Roberto Aguayo this season! The former Florida State kicker was basically automatic at college but has had a rough start to his NFL career. We believe he'll come good in time but at the moment, his confidence is certainly shaken and yet coach Dirk Koetter continues to rely on him. The Bucs are averaging more field goal attempts than they would like given their troubles in the red zone and what's worse is that some of those aren't even being converted into 3 points! The value is in the 'Under' by our estimates given the high total set. If the refs don't generously throw soft pass interference flags, we don't see this reaching the 50 points mark.
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