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May 23, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

In addition, an NBA selection was released earlier, in advance, for Tuesday night.

Take Seattle Mariners (-125) on the ML against Oakland A's risking 3.75% to win 3%.

The Oakland Athletics are a mess right now. A mixture of injuries, losses and lack of confidence has them reeling at the moment and makes it difficult for them to win games. They are coming off a 4-game series that saw them get swept at home by the Yankees! Not only are the results not going their way right now, not much else seems to be either. Mark Canha, Jed Lowrie, Eric Sogard, Josh Phegley and Sam Fuld were already on the D/L list and the latest casualty is Josh 'The Hitman' Reddick! The talented lefty was hitting 3rd in the lineup and is an important part of their outfield and offfense. He, too is now injured and will be missing games. On top of that, Khris Davis who's been on a torrid run in the month of May is banged up as well. He missed a couple games due to a forearm issue and although he'll be the DH tonight, the fact that he's not in the outfield is proof that he's not yet 100%. Catcher Stephen Vogt is another player that is set to take the field but is operating at full health. This squad has been decimated by injuries and some of the players that have been called up from the lower leagues simply aren't at the same level.

The Mariners on the other hand are fully healthy outside of short-stop Ketel Marte and are currently firing on all cylinders. They lead the AL West division and need to continue piling up 'W's to fend off the surging Texas Rangers. Impressively, Seattle won a series in Baltimore and then swept the Cincinnati Reds before returning to Safeco Field for the start of an 8-game homestand. The players understand that the fans will want to see a good showing from them as their road results have been far better than their performances at home. Scott Servais will be emphasizing that in the clubhouse in order to get a reaction from his players. He admitted that he doesn't know the reasons behind the home/road dichotomy but that it is likely due to a small sample size and something that'll take care of itself as the season goes on.

Interestingly enough, the visiting side has won all 6 matchups between these two clubs so far this season. That's because the Oakland A's came to Seattle and shocked the M's by taking all 3 games earlier this season, before the Mariners repaid the favor early in May. We believe 'home field advantage' will finally have a say in this game as the hosts find a way to edge this game. The Athletics are short on confidence, especially after another 1-run loss and their body language says a lot about their attitude.

The A's have all kinds of issues right now. Their bullpen can't hold onto leads and that means a win is far from secure even if Rich Hill does outduel Taijuan Walker. The 36-year old Hill has has an excellent season thus far but is playing a bit over his head. His career ERA at the major league level is 4.36 while his seasonal ERA is 2.54! He's been fortunate in some of the outings and we expect his numbers to regress a bit toward his career averages. Meanwhile Taijuan Walker is a talented young pitcher that rarely hands out free passes and has an impressive strike-out to walk ratio. The fact that he's coming off a couple of uncharacteristic outings has him pegged as a short favorite in this matchup and has hence created value. The Mariners are the better team and should win this game.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Oakland is just 8-17 after a loss this season.
  • Mariners are 6-1 at home when the total is set at 7 runs or less!
  • Oakland is 13-32 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 3 seasons!

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