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May 19, 2016

There is one underdog pick tonight.

Take LA Dodgers (+111) on the ML against LA Angels risking 3% to win 3.33%.
(Stripling and Chacin must both start for wager to have action)

Jhoulys Chacin was recently acquired to give the Angels a starting pitcher since Garrett Richards, CJ Wilson and Andrew Heaney are all sidelined with injuries. He came over from Atlanta Braves and previously spent a number of years at another National league team, Colorado Rockies. Given that Chacin has played his entire career with NL clubs, the Dodgers have seen quite a bit of him. They've faced him in the past and some have hit him pretty hard and know what to expect. Ross Stripling on the other hand is making his first start against the Anaheim club as none of the Angels have ever stepped up the plate against him! This allows him to surprise them in the first few innings, as they get familiar with his delivery and release point. The experience that the Dodgers have against Chacin gives them an important edge in this contest.

Stripling has had some good performances this season but it wasn't until his last outing that he was finally rewarded with a 'W' on his personal record. Now more confident than ever, he's determined to put in another good performance. And he might just need to in order to keep his spot in the rotation since Korean southpaw, Hyun-jin Ryu is set to return from injury soon and Michael Bolsinger is back as well. He'll need to continue impressing Dave Roberts to avoid being sent down to the minor leagues as he has competition on his hands now, unlike about a month ago. He's handled himself generally well thus far and we believe he'll want to make the most of his chances.

Chacin has logged over 110 innings in his career against the LA Dodgers, his most against any MLB club and so it's fair to say that he's seen plenty of them and they've seen plenty of him. What is different this time however is that he's wearing a Halos uniform. This will actually be his Angels' home debut as he has previously only started one game for them and that was on the road at Safeco Field, Seattle. The fact that this is his home debut for his new club puts additional pressure on him. Given the intangibles surrounding this matchup, we don't expect Chacin to be at his sharpest. We believe the Dodgers will get on-base against him and cause him problems.

This is the 4th and final game of the 'Freeway Series' between these two LA Clubs and with the Angels currently up 2-1, the Blue Crew will be motivated to win this game and earn a split. Failure to do so gives their nearest rivals, local bragging rights and that isn't something that the Dodger faithful will want to see. Mike Scioscia's side was quite lucky to put together that decisive 5-run inning last night as CJ Cron among others stepped up to the plate, swung at some bad pitches and yet ultimately didn't pay for it. Cron and company had some infield hits and bloop singles with runners in scoring position that ended up proving very costly for Coleman and the Dodgers. They put together a bunch of strange base hits that were more fortunate than well-hit. We don't expect them to be as lucky tonight. Their bullpen is also a mess right now with closer Huston Street still dealing with an injury and others having been overworked recently. Stripling and the Dodgers are a live underdog in this spot and are more than capable of winning this game. This'll likely be a closely contested matchup. All the value lies with the underdogs as we actually believe they are more likely to win this game than the hosts.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Dodgers are 97-62 after a loss over the last 3 seasons!
  • Chacin is just 3-10 in his career in the month of May at home.
  • Angels are just 2-6 at home when the total is set at 8 or 8.5 runs.

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