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May 18, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take Oakland A's (-155) on the ML against Texas Rangers risking 4.65% to win 3%.
(Hill and Perez must both start for wager to have action)

This should be an interesting matchup this afternoon as the Oakland Athletics continue their 3-game set with the Rangers. There was no shortage of drama last night in this matchup as Oakland managed to blow a 4-3 lead with 2 outs in the 9th inning as Ian Desmond crushed a 2-run homer! It appeared as if Texas was going to win the game with Desmond being sighted as the hero, however it wasn't to be. As Shawn Tolleson took the mound to make the save for his team, he proceeded to load the bases and Kris Davis, who has been on fire lately, crushed a walk-off grand slam to give his team the improbable victory! Both Khris Davis and Valencia have been playing extremely well recently while Tolleson has been find it tough to get those final outs. He already has 4 blown saves on the season, which is more than he had all of last year. It was certainly a violent change of momentum and a confidence boosting win for Oakland, which we expect to carry over into this contest.

Not only does Bob Melvin's side have all the momentum and situational advantages on their side at the moment; the starting pitching matchup this afternoon gives them yet another edge. Rich Hill has actually been Oakland's most consistent pitcher this season. The veteran has fanned 53 batters on the year which ranks 4th in the AL. His ERA is also among the top 10, while his opponent batting average of just .203 also ranks #4 among AL pitchers! We believe this Texas offense that has never seen him before will have issues with him on the mound, especially in the early stages of the game.

While we expect the Rangers' lineup to struggle against Hill while the Oakland hitters actually find themselves in a favorable situation this afternoon as this will be their 3rd consecutive game facing a southpaw as they take on Martin Perez in this contest. Perez actually may be the least impressive of the southpaws they've faced recently as they've had to go against the likes of Matt Moore, Derek Holland and Cole Hamels the last 3 nights! Perez' strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) is among the worst in Majors and that is a problem against a team that is seeing the ball well at the moment and has also faced him quite a few times in the past! The Texas offense also hasn't provided Perez with much support when he has taken the hill as they have averaged only 2.28 runs per 9 innings for him in run support! It's interesting to note that Perez's last road 'win' came two years ago in April 2014! We believe that Hill will outduel Perez this afternoon and the A's will pull off a rare home sweep. The value in this afternoon clash is with Oakland after such a short turnaround and last night's late dramatics.

 Other notable facts to consider:

  • A's are 25-16 in this price range over the last 3 years!
  • Rangers are 1-4 as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season.
  • Perez hasn’t won a decision on the road since April 2014!
  • Rangers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter!

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