May 15, 2016
The only reason we are off to a poor MLB start this season is the fact that we have lost every single game that's gone to extra innings and the vast majority of those decided by 1-run! Wins have often been convincing and by 3+ runs while losses have come by the narrowest of margins and late in the game. That is very unfortunate and will no doubt turn around as bad luck doesn't last forever. Results will soon return to their historical averages and SPS clients will get what they deserve, which is another successful baseball season after going 91-68 and profiting 35.88 units last year.
Take NY Mets (-120) on the ML against Colorado Rockies risking 3.6% to win 3%.
(deGrom and Chatwood must both start for wager to have action)
Pitching at Coors Field can be a tough assignment and while Jacob deGrom has never done so before, he has learned a lesson or two by watching teammates Matt Harvey and Logan Verrett struggle over the last two nights. The Mets' starting pitching is among the very best in the Majors and there is therefore a healthy amount of clubhouse-rivalry between Harvey, Syndergaard and deGrom as each aims to establish himself as the 'Ace' of the staff. While all 3 are extremely talented, deGrom might just be the most effective. Last year's All-Star game starter has not been at his best so far in 2016 after dealing with a couple of injuries early on but is capable of getting on a roll and being dominant. He has the opportunity to play the role of 'stopper' this afternoon by helping his team avoid the sweep and we believe he'll cherish that. If successful, he can set himself apart from Matt Harvey by containing the Colorado offense and snapping the team's current 3-game losing streak.
It's worth noting that deGrom is undefeated against the Rox having twice previously faced them. He has pitched 15 shutout innings against this lineup while striking out 19! We don't expect him to be as flawless today but he should be able to outduel Tyler Chatwood. Given that this game has a 10 run total set by Vegas, it is likely to be fairly high-scoring affair and that gives the pitchers some margin for error. It means deGrom doesn't have to pitch a shutout today to win. He might even give up 3-4 runs which would be uncharacteristic for him and yet still clinch a much-needed 'W' for himself and his team.
Chatwood has been pitching at Coors Field for years and yet has still not figured things out. Whether it's the pressure from the home fans to put on a good showing or a mental block, the fact remains that he's performed much better on the road this year. Chatwood has been lit up in Colorado where he is winless and sports an ugly 7.88 ERA! Against a motivated and powerful Mets offense that has been slugging with the best of them this season, we don't think he'll throw a gem. Both teams have heavy hitters but Chatwood is more hittable than deGrom and has frequently allowed home-runs this season!
The New Yorkers suddenly need this more than the Rockies. After losing the first two games of this 3-game series, they are in danger of an embarrassing sweep that would see them fall further behind the division lead. Washington Nationals are currently 1.5 games ahead and even the Phillies are ahead of them in the standings! Terry Collins, who was ejected from yesterday's game after arguing a controversial call knows the importance of getting back on track and will do whatever it takes to get back to winning ways. The bullpen was used more than he'd like last night but the fact that the Mets have the day off tomorrow means they can still get good contribution out of almost everyone but perhaps Robles, knowing that a day of rest is ahead. The Rockies on the other hand, have now used their set-up man and closer, Estevez and McGee on consecutive nights and may not have them available to call upon tonight. Even if Walt Weiss does decide to give the ball to those two however, the Mets have now stepped up to the plate against them on back-to-back nights and will be much better equipped to do damage against their tired arms! This may be a closely contested game but we ultimatley expect the better team to find a way to edge it. Back them at these short odds.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Colorado bats are a collective 3-for-39 against deGrom!
- Mets have not yet lost a series this season, let alone get swept.
- Jacob deGrom is 9-1 on the road in day games over the last 3 seasons!
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