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May 10, 2016

There is one pick tonight. Please scroll down to view it.

The baseball season is a marathon and NOT a sprint. Each team plays a total of 162 games in the regular season, from April to September! Therefore while it's nice to get off to a hot start, that isn't always possible and some contenders have yet to properly get going while others have had a fast start but will fade away in the coming months. SPS is no different. We've lost an unusual amount of close games so far this season despite our teams often getting more men in scoring positions than the opposition and being on the sharp side (odds moving toward the team we bet on)! Timely hits have been elusive but won't be for much longer. It is something that'll take care of itself as the season goes on and our previous track record proves that.

Sports Profit System clients went a documented and verified 91-68 with MLB picks last year to profit 35.88 units! It is unfortunate that the first month of the season has been poor and we take full responsibility for it but that is precisely why seasonal results are the TRUE indicator of success since we had losing months in 2015 as well and yet that didn't stop us from a highly profitable year. We have no doubt that the baseball diamond will pad our bankroll as it has done in the past.

Take the OVER 8 total runs in Toronto Blue Jays vs. San Francisco Giants for 3% of the bankroll.
(Cain and Happ must start for wager to have action)

Two veteran pitchers, Matt Cain and J.A. Happ get the ball from their respective managers tonight. Cain will toe the rubber for the Giants, hoping to turn around what has been a miserable start to the season. He's been hit extremely hard in nearly every outing and sports a fat 7.84 ERA! He's had some command issues but what been most troubling is how well the hitters are seeing the ball, as his fast-ball seems to have little 'life' to it. The ball doesn't move around much and is being crushed by opposing bats and that's bad news when facing a powerful Toronto lineup that is capable of lighting up even the top pitchers. Cain is past his best and the same way that the Blue Jays got to another veteran righty in Jake Peavy last night, we expect them to do damage against Cain tonight.

J.A. Happ, on the other hand, has had an outstanding start to the season but is playing just a bit over his head in our opinion. His numbers flatter him a bit right now and are likely to regress over the next few outings. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits at 4.03 which shows that he's not thrown the ball as well as his 2.5 ERA would at first glance indicate. He's definitely gotten some lucky bounces and that's also evident in the fact that he's stranded 83.7% of his base-runners! That is a high number and one that we don't see him keeping up. The bottom line is that, while a solid veteran, he's hardly unhittable. Against a hungry San Francisco offense that has been doormant in recent days, we expect them to put some pressure on him and cross the home plate a few times.

Matt Cain has had ample trouble with many of the batters in the current Blue Jays lineup even when he was in his prime. Guys like Troy Tulowitzki and Edwin Encarnacion have punished him hard. In fact in 135 previous at-bats, the Toronto hitters have a combined .296 batting average against him! Meanwhile their on-base percentage is even more impressive at .380 showing that they've been patient with him and will take their walks and not necessarily chase pitches out of the strike-zone. 

Even if one of the two does have a quality start, neither bullpen can be trusted right now. The Giants are without quality relievers like Sergio Romo and George Kontos while John Gibbons had had to put up with poor performances by the likes of Drew Storen! Neither club has a shut-down unit that can come into the game and put up zeros and so this game has a chance to go 'Over' even if the two starters do better than expected. The fact that it could be a close game also increases the slim possibility of extra innings. All in all, we don't see a pitchers' duel in this matchup. Both offenses are capable of doing damage and this could be more of a slugfest than anything else.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • The 'Over' is 9-4 when SF Giants face a left-handed pitcher.
  • 12 of 16 games have gone 'Over' when Giants are coming off a loss!
  • Blue Jay bats have given Happ an average of 6.3 runs in support!

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