May 9, 2016
There are two picks tonight.
1: Take Colorado Rockies (-132) on the ML against Arizona D-backs risking 3.96% to win 3%.
(Chatwood and Bradley must start for wager to have action)
There is no question that the Colorado Rockies pitching staff has been a major reason for their struggles this season. They come into this contest ranked 28th in the league in ERA at 5.07, while also ranking 22nd in WHIP at 1.38. That being said, their lone bright spot in the rotation this season has been who they will send to the mound tonight, Tyler Chatwood. Chatwood has been the Rox’ most consistent pitcher on the hill having gone 4-2 with a 2.15 ERA in 6 starts on the season. He has also been sensational against the Diamondbacks in his career having gone 4-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 5 career appearances.
While their pitching has been somewhat lacking, their offense has been what has carried them thus far this season. They have dynamite in their bats and it is certainly reflecting on the scoreboard as they come into this contest ranked 3rd in the league in scoring, averaging 5.33 runs per game, while also ranking 4th in hitting (.274) and 3rd in homeruns (42)! They've had Arizona's number this season and the offense has certainly been what has carried this team thus far, but has somewhat been overshadowed by their less than stellar pitching. Given they have their most productive starter on the mound tonight should give the Rockies a great chance at picking up the victory. It's worth noting that the Colorado bullpen has improved a lot from last year.
Like their counterparts, pitching has been a sore spot for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season as well. Arizona comes in ranked 27th in the league in ERA at 4.81, while also ranking 25th in WHIP at 1.43, however their starting pitcher tonight, late replacement Archie Bradley has not shared the same success as his counterpart. Bradley is not only getting a replacement start but he was hit hard in his most recent MLB start which was back on April 18th where he gave up 5 earned runs and 7 hits in just under 5 innings of work. He struggled mightily with his command and even walked 4 batters! Control issues are certainly something that he cannot afford to have, especially in this venue. With his lack of experience on the mound, the big bats of Colorado are likely to eat him up. We wouldn't be surprised if it was another short evening for Bradley tonight. To make a spot start at this level is tough enough but to do it at Coors Field against an explosive offense, is even more challenging!
Traveling and fatigue could also play a role in this matchup as the Rockies had a short trip from the West Coast home tonight while the D-backs had a much longer trip from Atlanta and were in Miami before that! Chatwood has yet to taste defeat at the hands of the Diamondbacks and we don't believe his streak ends tonight. The odds on this game have shifted exponentially from our time of release as it appears that other sharps are sharing the same insight that we are. It's not too often that the Rockies hold the pitching edge in a contest but we believe that will be the case tonight. In our eyes, they are the ones that hold numerous advantages on the diamond and that should translate to a convincing victory tonight.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Colorado is 5-1 against Arizona this season.
- Colorado is a perfect 3-0 after shutting out an opponent in the last game!
- The Rockies outscored the Diamondbacks 20-5 in a recent 3-game sweep in Arizona!
2: Take the UNDER 216 total points in Warriors vs. Blazers for 3% of the bankroll.
There are a number of factors that lead us to believe Game 4 will be lower scoring than many of the past meetings between these two sides. Both teams shot the ball extremely well last time out. Steve Kerr was not happy with the amount of uncontested shots that the Blazers bucketed and will demand a response from his team. And 'respond' is exactly what Golden State has done after each and every loss this season. Their concentration level and defensive discipline often goes up a notch after a rare defeat and it would surprise us if the Trail Blazer offense was as efficient tonight as it was in Game 3.
Terry Stotts has also emphasized the importance of defense all along and even attributed his team's success in the second half of the season and playoff berth to their ability to lock down and make life tough for opponents on that end of the court. Neither coach will therefore be happy with the defensive effort of their squad in the last game and will look to make certain adjustments. One of those adjustments will be limiting the second-chance points by the opposition. The Warriors and the Blazers both had 11 offensive boards in Game 3 and that is too much for the coaching staff's liking! Normally, one team might grab double-digit offensive boards but very rarely do you see both clubs slip up as much in cleaning up the defensive glass.
Turnovers were kept to a minimum in Game 3 by both sides and that is something else that is unlikely to be repeated. Given the up-tempo brand of basketball that these two sides play, it isn't surprising that they average 15 and 14 turnovers per game respectively. In the last matchup between the two, they took exceptionally good care of the basketball as one committed 10 turnovers while the other had only 12 giveaways. Neither defense was opportunistic enough to get as many steals or deflections as they normally do and we expect at least one of the two teams, if not both, to regress back to the mean.
Last but not least, while both teams are incredibly adept at shooting the 3-ball, they don't normally bucket as many as they did in the last game. The Warriors made 14 of 29 from beyond the arc in Game 3 while the Blazers made 17, shooting well over 50%! Portland averages 11 made three-pointers per game and for them to be that efficient from long range meant the Warriors weren't as stingy on defense as they often are. Draymond Green who had a monster game offensively but a poor one defensively admitted as much after the game. He noted that he was disappointed with his effort on the defensive end, as he allowed the likes of Aminu to get comfortable and find their rhythm. Look for Green, Bogut and company to be more defensively stout tonight while we don't see Draymond getting 35+ points as he did in the last game. This will still be a high-scoring game but this number has been inflated thanks to the unusual displays of Game 3 and the betting public will be disappointed to blindly bet the 'Over' when all the value is on the 'Under' at this number.
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