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March 30, 2016 (1:26 PM ET)

There is only one pick tonight.

Sports Profit System has won 13 of its last 16 NBA picks and is closing in on a hugely profitable month!

Take Memphis Grizzlies -2 spread against Denver Nuggets for 3% of the bankroll.

The Memphis Grizzlies have been limping toward the end of the regular season, having lost 3 straight and 7 of their last 10 which makes this matchup with the Denver Nuggets extremely important for the team. Memphis currently occupies the 5th spot in the conference standing and while it is unlikely that they will catch the 4th place Clippers, with only a 2.5 game lead over the surging Portland Trail Blazers, there is a real chance that they could fall to 6th place, which is a position that they certainly don't want to find themselves in. Whichever team is in 6th place come the season end will have the daunting task of playing the red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder and given the way the Grizz have been playing recently, that could potentially spell and early exit from the playoffs. They have also not yet clinched a playoff spot and with Dallas, Utah, Houston and Portland all having won their last game, they are inching closer! That puts a healthy amount of pressure on Memphis to get a result tonight and we expect to see an all-out focused effort from Dave Joerger’s side tonight. The fact that their upcoming schedule gets a lot together gives them even more incentive to take care of the Nuggets tonight and record a much needed 'W' as they will face Golden State twice in the final stretch run of the season as well as visit LA to play the Clippers! They also have a road game in Dallas against a desperate Mavs side and host the Raptors next (after this game). It's safe to say that this is the most winnable game left on their schedule and they'll want to take full advantage of it.

Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets currently sit 6 games out of the final playoff spot and while they have not been mathematically eliminated from postseason contention, their chances of making the playoffs are extremely slim. With the season winding down and hope diminishing, it's natural to see a drop-off in motivation and production which is what we believe we have seen from the Nuggets recently. The team has struggled on offense in their last 2 games scoring just 88 points and 90 points respectively. In their most recent loss, ball security was an issue as the Nuggets personnel committed 21 turnovers! Guards Emmanuel Mudiay and Gary Harris were the only starters for the Nuggets that scored in double figures in that contest. Heading into a matchup with a desperate Grizzlies team that is is among the league leaders in steals (8) and takeaways (16) per game, it will be challenging. The fact that Denver has another game scheduled for tomorrow won't help their cause either.

The Grizzlies have had the unfortunate luck to be forced to play the San Antonio Spurs in back to back games. The Spurs own the statistical best D in the league so we would expect Memphis to have a much easier time scoring on this porous Nuggets defense. They're also the more rested team in this contest which means they'll be fresher and better prepared (extra practice)! The Nuggets have also shown their struggles on the road this season, going to just 14-24 on the highway. Meanwhile, FedEx Forum has always been a tough place for opposing teams to play and with Memphis' 25-12 record this season is evidence of that! The Grizzlies have also defeated the Nuggets three times already this season which shows what a good matchup this is for them. While it is extremely difficult to sweep a team in a given season, the fact that the Grizzlies absolutely need wins at this point will motivate them to give it their all and not take this matchup for granted. This could be a closely contested game but the veteran Memphis squad is a lot better at closing out games than the young Nuggets and has won many games this season that have gone down the wire. The Grizzlies are the overall better team and should do enough to come away with a win and cover on their home floor.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Grizzlies are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss.
  • Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after not covering a spread.
  • Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. teams with a winning home record.
  • Grizzlies are 15-7 against teams with a losing record in the second half of the season!

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