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June 29, 2016

There is one MLB pick tonight.

Take Milwaukee Brewers (+105) on the ML against LA Dodgers risking 3% to win 3.15%.
(Guerra and Stewart must both start for wager to have action)

Junior Guerra has been a pleasant surprise for the Brew Crew this season. The 31-year old rookie never gave up on his dreams and had to play in different leagues around the world before finally getting a chance at Major League Baseball. It says a lot about his character and determination. He's now enjoying the fruits of his labor as he actually sports the best ERA (3.67) and most strike-outs (65) in the Milwaukee rotation! The Brewers have won 8 of his 10 starts and should end up with another 'W' tonight.

Brock Stewart is making his Major League debut tonight and nerves will undoubtedly be a factor. No matter how talented a pitcher, anxiety is part of the game when pitching in front of big crowds as Dodgers' #1 ranked prospect, Julio Urias even found out, on his debut a couple of months ago. Stewart has quickly risen through lower levels but is the club's #26 prospect and clearly not the most talented of pitchers. He does deserve credit for his hard work however and is being rewarded with a chance to perform tonight. Nonetheless, expectations should be kept at a moderate level considering he was pitching in Class A level less than 3 months ago! This is the fourth level of competition he's facing through his rapid rise and no doubt the biggest step up as major league hitters are an entirely different animal. Against the likes of Chris Carter, Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, the smallest mistakes can be punished and while he may have a bright future ahead of him, pitchers are rarely at their best in their first big league start due to nerves.

The Brewers have played some tough close games against the Dodgers this season and yet ended up on the losing side of the vast majority. That won't sit well with this squad. They no doubt have revenge in mind and will at the very least want to salvage something out of this series, knowing they lost last night and will be facing Kenta Maeda tomorrow! A victory tonight would set up a rubber match for Thursday and allow them to win this series; At the very least, it would ensure they avoid an embarrassing home sweep. Not only do the hitters remember the recent series played in Los Angeles and want to make amends, Junior Guerra also has a point to prove, himself. Guerra has been largely consistent throughout the season and has for the part logged 'quality starters' but in his recent visit to LA, he was hit hard and was not at his usually efficient self. He knows he's capable of pitching better against this lineup than he did on that occasion and will have a better idea of how to get these batters out. 

The Dodgers' bullpen is fairly taxed right now. Two of their best 3 relievers, Joe Blanton, Baez and closer Jansen have pitched in 2 consecutive days and others like Adam Liberatore have been extensively used as well. It wouldn't surprise us if Brian Roberts gave one or two of them the night off to rest while the Brew Crew have a pretty good and fresh bullpen with names like Jeffress, Thornburg, Blazek and Will Smith ready to be called into action! This should be another close game but we actually believe Milwaukee is more likely to win this game than the visitors and should have been installed as favorites. At these odds, all the value is on the capable underdog to pull off the upset. 

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