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June 28, 2016

There is one pick tonight.
 

Take Miami Marlins (+103) on the ML against Detroit Tigers risking 3% to win 3.09%.
(Conley and Pelfrey must both start for wager to have action)

This is a classic 'False Favorite' situation in our opinion. The only reason Miami has been installed as an underdog in this matchup is they are the road team. That, we believe is a mistake because they are not only on the better team this year, they own a huge edge in tonight's starting pitching matchup. Adam Conley is hardly a household name and still has ways to improve but he's a far better hurler these days than Mike Pelfrey in what should prove be a mismatch on the mound.

The veteran Pelfrey is having a terrible season and is simply there to eat some innings for Brad Ausmus' pitching-challenged Tigers club. Not only is his Earned Run Average (ERA) nearly 5 runs, it's actually generous on him as his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) sits at 5.33, showing that he's actually been somewhat lucky. Perhaps the metric that best showcases how much he's struggled this season is his strike-out to walk ratio of 1.29, which is the 2nd worst mark in the Majors among qualified starters! In his last start against the Mariners, he gave up 6 runs on 12 hits in just five innings and yet the offense somehow bailed him out, as he ended up with a no-decision. We don't believe he'll be as fortunate this time around.

Adam Conley is coming off a stong 8-inning shutout effort and has blanked opposing offenses 5 times in 15 starts! The southpaw has good stuff and is capable of catching hitters that lack plate appearances against him off-guard. That is exactly the case here with Detroit as no Tigers batter except Cam Maybin has ever faced him before and even Maybin only has 3 prior at-bats against him! This is Conley's first ever start against the Tigers and we believe it may take them a couple of orders through the lineup to get used to his pitching style and delivery. By then, the Fish should have the lead against a very hittable Mike Pelfrey whom they have seen plenty of times in the past. Pelfrey is 1-9 with an ugly 5.40 ERA against the Marlins in 18 career starts! He's likely going to need the bullpen and the offense to bail him out again.

Don Mattingly has instilled a winning attitude in Miami and they are firmly in the NL East division hunt. With the Mets and Nats battling it out right now, this is a prime opportunity for the Marlins to either inch closer to Washington atop the standings or create some separation between themselves and the Mets. Their bullpen has been much more reliable than Detroit's this season as well and that gives them another advantage since even if Pelfrey somehow does record a rare quality start, the Tigers' bullpen has blown away many leads and could do the same again. And with the Fish having revenge in mind as well, since Detroit won both games on their visit to Miami early in the season, look for Ichiro Suzuki and company to be up for this contest. Last but not least, it's worth noting that despite being a lefty, Conley's ERA is much worse against left-handed batters this season but the Tigers have a very right-handed heavy lineup! The Fish have a lot of different edges in this matchup and should have been installed in the -120 range as favorites.




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