June 24, 2016
There is one pick tonight.
Take Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) on the ML against LA Dodgers risking 3.45% to win 3%.
(Taillon and Tepesch must both start for wager to have action)
This matchup tonight is a classic “Buy low - Sell high” situation as we believe that the Dodgers' stock has been inflated due to current 6-game winning streak that has had its fair share of close and somewhat fortunate walk off wins. Meanwhile, the Pirates are in the exact opposite situation and have been going through somewhat of an unfortunate rough stretch recently. They are a quality team, but their stock has likely reached its lowest point this season. That being said, they are not a team that can be discounted as they are certainly a NL contender and are likely to finish the year with a much better record than currently on display. They should come into this matchup in desperation mode and anxious to get a win at home in PNC Park, a place where they have been nothing short of dominant over the past 3 seasons.
For the Pirates, this will be Jameson Taillon's 4th professional start and other than his last outing, he has been a welcome addition to the rotation this season. After being roughed up his last trip to the mound, we expect him to bounce back tonight as he is starting to find his footing in the Majors. For the Dodgers, this will be Nick Tepesch's first big league start in the last few seasons. The former Texas Ranger saw a lot of action back in the 2012-2013 seasons, however injuries and being sent to Triple A took him out of the Majors. There is a reason why it's been years since Tepesch has been called back up to ‘The Show’ now that he has his opportunity in The Show once again, nerves could certainly come into play. If Tepesch is apprehensive on the mound, it could spell disaster for him against a Pirates team that has a lot of capable hitters in their lineup.
The Pirates are reasonable favorites in this contest due to their recent losing streak; however we believe they should have been listed as high as a -135 or -140 favorite in this particular situation. The value is on the home team tonight as Taillon outduels Tepesch and gets his team a much needed victory! Clint Hurdle's Bucs know the importance of snapping out of this losing streak right way, especially since they'll be going up against Kenta Maeda and Clayton Kershaw over the next two days.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Dodgers are 0-7 as a road underdog in the +100 to +125 range!
- Dodgers are 9-16 after a day of rest, over the last 2 seasons.
- Pirates are 41-21 when playing on Friday over the last 3 seasons.
- Pirates are 26-13 at home when the total is set at 8 or 8.5 runs over the last 3 seasons.
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