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June 23, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take NY Mets (-145) on the ML against Atlanta Braves risking 4.35% to win 3%.
(Harvey must start for wager to have action)

Normally this could potentially be a 'let-down spot' for the Mets given that they are facing the bottom club in the division, immediately after beting the defending World Series champs, Kansas City Royals in a 2-game interleague series but we believe it isn't and for several different reasons. The Mets are dealing with a lot of injuries at the moment and needed to regain their confidence after a tough couple of weeks. For the confidence level of some of these lesser players that have been unexpectedly thrusted into the starting lineup, a couple of wins can do wonders. There's also the fact that Atlanta Braves came to New York last week and shocked Citi Field by sweeping the Mets and taking all 3 games! Terry Collins and his clubhouse haven't forgotten that. They have revenge in mind and can open the series with a 'W' with Matt Harvey on the mound.

Matt Wisler will take the hill for the Braves and it has been exactly a week since he last started! Pitchers aren't normally at their best if they aren't on their regular 4-day rest and he might just be a bit rusty in the first couple of innings. His previous outing came on Thursday June 16th and while he was impressive in that start, he had been hit very hard in the previous ones. All in all June hasn't been a good month for him and we believe even if he performs well tonight, he won't outduel Harvey. Matt Harvey has had some difficulties this season but he's 2-1 with a 2.89 ERA in three career starts at Turner Field and has silenced this lineup in the past. He, too has revenge in mind as the Braves got to him last week and he knows he's capable of pitching a much better game than he did on that day. We expect him to set the tone and help the Mets take this opener.

Atlanta is the worst team in the National League this season and yet is not undervalued anymore, given that they recently had a rare 6-game winning streak! Now they are suddenly not installed as a big underdog even though this is an extremely poor team that has contiously found ways to lose games at home this season. Let's not forget that the Braves are 9-27 at Turner Field and aren't helped by a terrible bullpen that has thrown away numerous leads. The relievers have a combined ERA of nearly 5 runs at home and a WHIP of over 1.5! Therefore even if Wisler does somehow outlast and out-duel Harvey which we don't expect, the Mets bullpen might just find a way to get NY the victory anyway.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Braves have won just 5 of 25 games at home after a loss!
  • Braves are just 1-7 as a home underdog in the +125 to +150 range!
  • Braves have won only one of 7 games after being shut-out in the previous contest.

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