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June 19, 2016

There is one pick today.

Take Tampa Bay Rays (-131) on the ML against San Francisco Giants risking 3.93% to win 3%.
(Odorizzi and Peavy must start for wager to have action)

The Rays have lost the first two games of this interleague series and are in danger of being swept on their home field! Tampa is a mediocre team but they still have a lot of proud veterans at the clubhouse, guys that have been around for a long time and and will not want to lay down for anyone. That list includes the likes of Evan Longoria, Steve Pearce, Logan Morrison Brad Miller and several others. We believe Kevin Cash will throw everything he has at San Fran in the final game of this homestand, especially since the Rays head out on the road for some very tough games after this! Meanwhile Bruce Bochy's Giants might already be thinking about the Pirates. The Giants head to Pittsburgh after this game to face a National League team, and one that they have some history with in recent years and will be looking ahead to that. After all, even if they lose, they've still won this 3-game set and own a big lead over the Dodgers atop the NL West division.

The biggest edge that the home side has over the visiting Giants is the starting pitching matchup. Jake Peavy is well past his prime and at 35-years old, he can be quite inconsistent. He's had a couple of impressive outings this season but for the most part, he's been hit hard as his stuff no longer has much 'bite' on it. His 5.83 ERA and 1.49 WHIP accurately demonstrates just how poorly he's pitched. The fact that he's been even worse on the road (7.2 ERA) does not bode well for him and his team today! Quality starts have been hard to come by for the intense and often emotional Peavy with his average road outing lasting just 5 innings! It wouldn't surprise us if the hungry and motivated Rays offense got to him early and often this afternoon to chase him out of the game. At that point, it'll be up to the San Francisco bullpen to do the job.

Jake Odorizzi is a crafty hurler whose WHIP is under 1.1 at home! He knows how to pitch and can mix it up very well. He keeps hitters guessing and can be quite unpredictable in certain counts. Not only is he the better pitcher in this matchup, but he has another added advantage as well. And that's the fact that none of the San Fran hitters have ever faced him before! With the Giants being an NL team and visiting an AL club, prior experience at the plate is non-existent for them against Odorizzi and that is going to make the first couple of orders through the lineup quite challenging. Tampa hitters, on the other hand, have faced Peavy before, dating back to his days as an American League pitcher for teams like the White Sox and the Red Sox and should have more success.

Look for the Rays to win the series finale and salvagae one game out of what has been a disappointing 3-game set, but one that they can at least end on a high note as opposed to suffering an embarrassing home sweep! The Giants have won 7 in a row and could be just a bit complacent and take things for granted today. They likely have one eye on the upcoming series against the Pirates and are resting Buster Posey as the catcher to keep him fresh for those contests. Posey will be the DH today and with Trevor Brown behind home plate, we believe lead-off man Logan Forsythe and company have a better chance of scoring runs.

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