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June 18, 2016

One pick has been released.

Take Miami Marlins (-120) on the ML against Colorado Rockies risking 3.6% to win 3%.
(Chen and Chatwood must start for wager to have action)

Miami pitchers held Colorado to just one-hit in yesterday's series opener while putting together 9 hits of their own on their way to a 5-1 victory! Adam Conley struggled with his command at times and actually exited the game with his team down 1-0 but he was excellent overall as he'd allowed just one hit through those first 5 innings. Nick Wittgren came in relief of him to get the team out of a bases-loaded jam and ended up being the pitcher of record! The Fish took full advantage of the swing in momentum and the Rox' failures to add on more runs and immediately took the lead in the bottom half of the inning. They then added 3 more insurance runs in the next inning to clinch the 'W'. The starter and the bullpen did an excellent job and the insurance runs meant closer AJ Ramos was not called into action in the 9th inning, since it was not a 'save' situation. That means he and some of Miami's other top bullpen arms are fresh and ready to be called upon today.

Tyler Chatwood has been the best pitcher in the Majors on the road but we believe he's playing over his head. While improved over previous years, he's not as good as many of his numbers currently suggest. His road numbers are truly elite and we believe that isn't an accurate representation of how well he's actually pitched. He's been lucky in more ways than one and has stranded runners on base at an abnormally high rate. Sooner or later, he's going to have some of those players cross home plate and we believe it could start this afternoon. Another number that is due to regress is his ability to limit home runs. He's been truly exceptional in that regard but again, at a ridiculously and unheard of level, which indicates, he's unlikely to be able to keep it up. All in all, he's a good pitcher but his FIP tells a more accurate story than his ERA and we predict he'll have a few tough outings going forward. Against a Miami lineup that is seeing the ball very well at the moment, this could finally be his first poor road start of the season.

Wei-Yin Chen is a crafty southpaw, originally out of Taiwan, who's been in the Majors for a long time now. The experienced veteran is the epitome of composure on the mound and is rarely fazed by fielding errors or many other things that can go against a pitcher. His mental strength allows him to remain focused and confident, when many others would panic. His decision making and ability to read a hitter's swing is also an admirable attribute of his as it allows him to catch them by surprise and record punch-outs despite not having over-powering velocity. All in all, he's a quality veteran who knows how to get outs in different ways and gives his team a good chance when he takes the hill. The fact that he's another lefty, much like Adam Conley, could present problems for the Rox again. And an added advantage that he has over many National League teams such as Colorado, is that he spent the vast majority of his MLB career at Baltimore and NL teams therefore don't have much experience against him. The Rockies have a power-heavy lineup but they are scuffling a bit right now and Chen is clever enough to keep them guessing.

Not only are the Marlins the better team in our opinion, they are much better coached under new manager, Don Mattingly. While he has inspired the Floridans and instilled a winning mentality in the clubhouse, Walt Weiss lacks true leadership. The Rockies have enough talent on their roster to be doing much better than they are but until a change is made near the top of the organization, some of these players, with the exception of Nolan Arenado, could continue to underperform. Look for the Fish to carry the momemtum from last night's final few innings into this late afternoon clash and take another game from the visiting Denver club. Giancarlo Stanton finally had a pair of RBI's yesterday and might just be starting to snap out of his lengthy slump. If that's the case, Chatwood and company are gonna have their hands full as this squad features some other great hitters in the likes of Prado, Yelich, Ozuna and the power of the likes of Justin Bour, not to mention the experience of someone like the legendary Ichiro Suzuki, off the bench!

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Chen is 14-3 at home after a win over the last 3 seasons!
  • Stanton leads all active players in slugging percentage against NL West clubs!
  • Miami has won 10 of the last 15 games against Colorado including 7 of 9 at Marlins Park.

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