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June 12, 2016

There is one pick today.

Take Toronto Blue Jays (-160) on the ML against Baltimore Orioles risking 4.8% to win 3%.
(Sanchez and Jimenez must start for wager to have action)

Much like yesterday's matchup, we believe that is contest is a pitching mismatch! Blue Jays pitcher, Aaron Sanchez has been spectacular for the Blue Jays this season with 10 of his 12 trips to the mound being quality starts! Meanwhile, Baltimore starter, Ubaldo Jimenez is not the pitcher that he once was. He has been wildly inconsistent this season and has struggled with both his delivery and command. Quality starts have been a rarity for him this season and even when he has been pitching well, he is the type of pitcher who consistently finds himself in jams. He has been fortunate in that his defense has bailed him out of many disastrous situations, but his good fortune can only last so long. He has shown the ability to implode on the mound and that is a dangerous characteristic, especially against this potent Blue Jays lineup. His ERA speaks volumes of how poorly he's pitched this season and his ugly WHIP of 2.1 on the road sheds even more light on his performances!

Aaron Sanchez is undoubtedly the better pitcher in this contest but also has the unique advantage of following J.A. Happ in the rotation. Happ is a relatively 'soft throwing' lefty while Sanchez is a power right-hander! His fastball averages nearly 95 mph and his delivery has much more velocity on it. The speed changes and different mechanics should be able to keep the Baltimore lineup off balance in this contest as does the fact that they face a righty the the day after a southpaw. Jimenez, on the other hand, is very similar to his predecessor, Mike Wright. Both pitchers struggle with their command and we saw (and accurately predicted) that Wright would struggle against this lineup and he did. We expect the same will happen to Jimenez this afternoon.

It's been announced that Jose Bautista will once again receive the day off, however we don't believe that is a negative for the Jays in this contest. Bautista is one of the few Blue Jays who actually have struggled against Jimenez in his career. Having Joey Bats out of the lineup could actually prove to be an advantage for Toronto in this contest as it has allowed the odds to be much more reasonable than they could have been. Also unlike yesterday, Russell Martin will be behind the plate at catcher and Roberto Osuna will be back at the closing position which is yet another advantage for Toronto.

The Jays have has Baltimore's number in this series and we don't see them letting this game get away from them. They are seeing the ball extremely well at the moment and their offense is clicking at the right time. Now, going up against a pitcher that is struggling on the mound, the Jays should be able to string together some hits and plate runs early and often. Toronto has all of the momentum heading into this contest and that should be enough to translate into yet another win over their division rivals.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Toronto has won 12 of its last 17 games!
  • Blue Jays are 29-16 as a home favorite of -150 to -175, over the last 3 years.
  • Jimenez is 2-11 on the road after his team lost the previous game, over the last 2 seasons!

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