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June 9, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take the OVER 9 total runs in NY Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers for 3% of the bankroll.
(Nelson and Colon must start for wager to have action)

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers square off tonight in Game 1 of their 4 game series from Miller Park. It appears that the New York Mets have finally broken out of their offensive slump after yesterday's 6-5 extra innings victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Mets certainly have power in their lineup, but prior to last night they had been struggling to string together timely hits. We expect the offense that they showed last night to carry over into this game against a Milwaukee team that has struggled with its pitching rotation.

Jimmy Nelson has been a hittable pitcher and is coming off his worst outing of the season where he gave up 7 hits (2 homeruns) and 6 earned runs in just 4 innings of work! Control has been an issue for him all season long as his 60/31 K:BB ratio tells an important story. Nelson has also been vulnerable to giving up the long ball and that is something that the Mets have feasted on all season long. New York comes into this contest ranked 6th in the league in homeruns (79) and if Nelson allows a free base on base, all it takes is one swing of the bat for this power-heavy Mets lineup to start piling on the runs which should help this contest go 'over' the set total.

The Milwaukee bullpen has also had their fair share of struggles this season as well, especially at home where they have a combined 5.21 ERA. Like Nelson, they have also had an issue with giving up the long ball as they have allowed 30 homeruns this season by opposing hitters! Even if Nelson has a solid outing in the first part of the game, there is always a chance the bullpen gives up a few runs as they have many times already this season.

As inconsistent as the Milwaukee pitching staff has been, their offense has been one of the strengths of this team. They are averaging just over 4 runs per contest and are seeing the ball extremely well at the moment. Mets starter, Bartolo Colon, has had his share of struggles on the road this season despite the fact that he is 3-1 in 6 outings on the highway. Colon's ERA is 3.86 which shows that his offense has managed to show him consistent run support on the road and that is something we expect them to do tonight.

These are two offenses that are capable of plating runs and two pitchers who have shown a propensity for giving them up. We wouldn't be surprised if this was a closely contested matchup and a close game should only help this total go Over. Extra innings is certainly a possibility and if these two teams are tied 4-4 at any point in the game, it will be enough to give us at least a Push and a chance at the win. It's important to note that 10 straight Mets games have gone Over the total when listed as a short favorite or a short underdog after an extra innings game!

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