Members Only

June 6, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take Kansas City Royals (+107) on the ML against Baltimore Orioles risking 3% to win 3.21%.
(Duffy and Wright must both start for wager to have action)

The KC Royals will look to get back on track tonight as they head to Camden Yards for their series opener against the Baltimore Orioles. The Royals just recently lost a 3 game set to the Cleveland Indians which dropped them to second place in the division. This is not a position that the Royals have been used to over the past few season and you can bet everyone from the players to manager Ned Yost will be motivated to pick up the win in this series opening contest.

Danny Duffy will get the start tonight and after making a majority of his appearances out of the bullpen. Manager Ned Yost said that he won't have any pitch count restriction in this contest after working up to their goals gradually in each of the previous starts. Duffy is now fully back in 'starter mode' and we expect him to produce a quality outing tonight. It's worth mentioning that the Royals have won all 4 of his previous starts and he's likely to be sharper tonight than in his first couple of appearances this season where he would last only a few innings. The Royals organization has nursed him back slowly and we expect the time they put into his recovery to pay dividends tonight. Keep in mind that Duffy has baffled the O's in prior appearances against them as this lineup has a total of only 8 hits when facing him!

Meanwhile, we don’t believe that Baltimore's Mike Wright is a Major League level starter, at least not at the moment. He has been extremely hittable this season and was actually sent down to Triple A because of his performance, but injuries have forced Buck Showalter's hand in keeping him in the starting rotation. Against what should be a motivated and hungry Kansas City Royals lineup that is currently on a 4 game losing streak, we don't think he'll do well on the mound unless his defense continuously bails him out. He's been extremely fortunate this season to get nearly 6 runs in support on average per game. In his last outing, he lasted less than 3 innings and was once again bailed out by his bullpen and offense. We believe his luck is going to run out tonight.

At the end of the day, Duffy is the much better pitcher and the Kansas City bullpen will also have its best arms like Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Luke Hochevar ready to be called into action after they rested them all for the past two days. They should hold the edge on the mound all contest long. As for the offense, the Orioles have had some issues with left handed pitchers recently, including yesterday against fellow southpaw, CC Sabathia, who doesn't throw anywhere near as hard as Duffy does. The Royals will be the more desperate team after being swept and it's important that one never underestimate the heart of a champion. We believe this is a false favorite situation as the Royals should actually be the team favored and are more likely to win this contest. Given that they are listed as underdogs shows great value that we intend to take advantage of it.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Royals are 4-1 after being shut-out this season!
  • Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter!
  • Adam Jones has just 1 hit (a single) against Duffy in 13 previous at-bats!

Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.