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June 5, 2016

There is one pick today.

Take Philadelphia Phillies (-170) on the ML against Milwaukee Brewers risking 5.1% to win 3%.
(Nola and Peralta must start for wager to have action)

The Phillies should have a significant pitching edge in this series finale contest as Aaron Nola takes the mound opposite of the struggling Wily Peralta. Nola has been spectacular this season for the Phillies and even though his overall record doesn't necessarily reflect it, he has pitched much better than his numbers show. He has a very respectable 2.88 ERA in 72 innings pitched and has accumulated 76 strikeouts during that span! He has some quality pitches in his arsenal and has shown his ability to baffle hitters at the plate. Unfortunately for him, he hasn't always gotten the quality of run support needed to turn those quality starts into wins, but we believe that will change this afternoon against the Brewers.

Wily Peralta has certainly struggled this season. He is 3-6 with an abysmal 6.51 ERA in just over 56 innings of work. His velocity is down from years past as well as his accuracy. He only has 37 strikeouts on the year compared to 24 walked batters. There is no question that he has been one of the more 'hittable' pitchers in the league this season and that is something that we expect the Philadelphia offense to take advantage of.

Nola should be able to stifle the Milwaukee lineup and it only helps his case knowing that one of their most powerful bats, Ryan Braun, will be out of the lineup this afternoon. After starting the season off on fire, the Phillies have somewhat cooled off recently, but this is now their chance to turn things around and gain a bit of momentum back. This is an extremely important matchup as the Brewers have managed to take two of the first 3 games of this 4-game series and they cannot afford to drop yet another home series, especially to a team like Milwaukee. The Phillies have dropped in in their divisional standings, but are still within striking distance if they can turn things around. These are the types of games that they need to win in order to stay within the running for the postseason and we expect them to do just that.

The Phillies have been a scrappy team this season and have played in a lot of closely contested games. They are not a team that normally blows teams out, but have shown the ability to come through in the clutch with timely hits and solid work on the mound. Nola should do enough to keep the Milwaukee offense contained in the early part of the game and if Philadelphia can get the lead, we expect their bullpen to be able to close the door on a comeback and come away with the much needed victory.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Phillies are 6-0 after two or more consecutive games going ‘Over’.
  • Milwaukee is just 65-96 against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
  • Aaron Nola is 1-0 with an impressive ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.857 against the Brewers.

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