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June 2, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take Colorado Rockies (-176) on the ML against Cincinnati Reds risking 5.28% to win 3%.
(Butler and Simon must both start for wager to have action)

This is a matchup that we believe is a complete mismatch in nearly every facet of the game and even though the odds are somewhat higher than we normally show interest in, it could have easily been higher around the -200 mark, which shows significant value.

At the moment, Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Alfredo Simon is arguably the worst starter in all of baseball. He is well past his prime and at the moment, is simply not executing at an elite level. His velocity has significantly diminished and his accuracy is nowhere near where it once was. The fact that the Reds have continued to stick with him in the rotation despite his struggles is a mistake as he should have been demoted to the bullpen weeks ago. We believe their decision to 'keep the faith' will be costly in this game, especially against the extremely potent offense of the Colorado Rockies.

This game is also being played at Coors Field which is not the venue that a struggling hurler wants to pitch in. The Rockies have been hammering opposing pitchers in this venue for years and given the way that Simon has been pitching, we wouldn't be surprised to see his ERA (which is currently 10), actually increase after this contest. In two previous career starts at Coors Field, Simon has an 11.25 ERA! He has also lasted only an average of 4 innings per start this season as well. Failure of their starting rotation to go deep into games has been a real problem for Bryan Price's team considering they have by far the worst bullpen in the Majors this season! They have also been a terrible team on the road and are 0-7 as a road underdog of +150 to +175 this season! They have also been a team that hasn't capitalized on momentum as they have struggled to win back to back games given that they are 6-11 after a victory this season.

Both of these teams have no doubt underperformed, but the Rockies have actually been an extremely tough out at home and tonight they should be extremely motivated as they are in danger of losing a 4 game series to a team like the Reds. We believe they'll even up the series 2-2 in what is the final meeting between these two ball clubs this season. Unlike their opponents, the Rockies are not out of contention as of yet and still have a ton to play for and are in need of a bounce back performance in this contest. The run differential between these two teams tells an accurate story of their overall quality and it's worth mentioning that the Rockies' pitching (both starters and bullpen) has vastly improved this season while the Reds have undoubtedly regressed. The Rockies have plated a lot more runs while allowing a lot less runs than their opponents and should come away with the much needed victory tonight. 

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