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June 1, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take the OVER 9 total runs in Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox for 3% of the bankroll.
(Kelly and Wright must both start for wager to have action)

Two hard hitting teams square off again as the Red Sox take on the Baltimore Orioles from Camden Yards and this is a matchup that we believe is likely to sail 'over' the set total. The Boston Red sox have recorded double digit hits in a majority of their games this season and are currently the number 1 ranked offense in the league! They have speed and power in their lineup and follow each other one by one and that makes things difficult on opposing pitchers as their essentially have to 'pick their battles' on who to challenge at the plate and what we believe is more a case of 'pick your poison'.

The Orioles offense is also extremely potent, however they have been somewhat unfortunate the last couple of nights. Chris Davis for example hit a 2-run homer that was judged to have gone 'foul', however could have easily been considered a homerun given the position over the pole. That would have naturally contributed to a much higher scoring game. We believe some of the bats that have been silent over the last couple of nights will come to life against Joe Kelly who is a pitcher they have seen plenty of before. Pedro Alvarez has a .500 on-base percentage against Joe Kelly and Chris Davis is batting .500 hitter against him, going 5-for-10 with 2 walks!

As for the Red Sox, unless they hit into an above average amount of double-plays, they should have no problem getting to Mike Wright who's done very poorly over his last few starts and has also struggled against Boston in the past. It's certainly worth mentioning that these two teams have Mark Trumbo and Blake Swihart in outfield tonight. Both are less than stellar defensively at that position which should create opportunities for extra-bases or fielding errors which could lead to a couple of unexpected runs!

This should be a closer contest than the last two nights and that can also help the 'Over' as even a 4-4 tied game will give us at least a push but most likely end up cashing tickets, since extra innings will be required to determine a winner. Both offenses are capable of doing damage and we expect to see a slugfest tonight. A 7-5 type game is a possibility and extra innings could also provide a bonus backdoor cover. Either team is capable of winning this contest, but we believe whoever does will have to score a ton of runs which gives the 'Over' a lot of value especially since we don't see neither offense being blanked by these pitchers.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Boston's combined .294 batting average is by far the best in the Majors!
  • 10 of 12 Orioles’ games have gone 'Over' when the total was set at 9 or 9.5 runs!
  • 10 straight Baltimore games have gone 'Over' after Adam Jones had multiple hits in the last game!

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