Members Only

July 29, 2016

There are two underdog picks tonight.

#1: Take Colorado Rockies (+152) on the ML against NY Mets risking 3% to win 4.56%.
(Chatwood and Matz must start for wager to have action)

This is a matchup where we believe the odds have been severely inflated, despite the fact that these teams are very evenly matched. The Colorado Rockies are one of the hottest teams in the league right now have won 7 of their last 8 games and 10 of their last 14. They come into this matchup having already taken game 1 of the series with a 2-1 victory. The New York Mets meanwhile have certainly cooled off after their hot start to the season and certainly don't resemble the team that were World series runner ups last season.

Offense has been a huge issue for the Mets as they average just 3.7 runs per game, which is third worst in the league. Over their last five games, they've managed to generate just 14 runs. Unless their pitchers have exceptional outings, it has been a struggle for the Mets to win games, especially when the matchup turns into an offensive shootout. The Rockies haven't had much of an issue generating offense this season and over their last 7 games have scored an impressive 37 runs! Their biggest struggle has been their pitching, but tonight they have arguably their most consistent start on the mound in Tyler Chatwood.

On the season Chatwood is 9-6 with a 3.65 ERA but he has been the best pitcher on the road this season. In 8 road starts, he is a perfect 5-0 with an ultra-impressive 1.30 ERA over 48.3 innings with Colorado going 7-1 in those starts. He has given up just 7 earned runs and has yet to give up a home run on the highway! He has faced the Mets 4 times in his career and is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA. As a team, the Rockies have owned the Mets this season, going a perfect 4-0 on the year.

The Mets are struggling at the moment and their offense has been extremely inconsistent. They simply should not be listed as this big a favorite in this particular matchup. The Rockies have all of the tools, both offensively and defensively to come away with the victory in this contest. This is more of a 50-50 matchup, with either team capable of coming away with the victory. The oddsmakers have listed the run total at just 7 runs, which means they are predicting a lower scoring affair. If that is indeed the case, we believe the advantage should lie with the team who has had a much more consistent showing in stringing together hits and plating runs; which would be the Rockies. There is a certain amount of risk in backing such a big underdog; however the reward certainly outweighs the risk in this contest if we are correct and the Rockies come away with the victory.

#2: Take Detroit Tigers (+121) on the ML against Houston Astros risking 3% to win 3.63%.
(Boyd and McHugh must start for wager to have action)

Since May, the Houston Astros have been the best team in baseball and have been making a major push since their rough start to the season. That being said, they were somewhat cooled at home by the New York Yankees and we believe that will carry over into this series with the Detroit Tigers.

Houston will send Collin McHugh to the mound in this series opener. McHugh won his second straight start in his last trip to the mound, allowing two runs and six hits over six innings with six against the visiting Los Angeles Angels. He has now held opponents to no more than two earned runs in six of his last seven starts and has a 2.66 ERA in four July starts. That being said, we believe this is the game where McHugh will regress. He is just 7-6 with a 4.18 ERA on the season, so his performance as of late is just a bit over his head. He has also struggled on the road this season, going 3-3 with a 4.17 ERA. McHugh also lost at home to Detroit on April 16, allowing four runs and 10 hits over 5.1 innings which tied a season high for him. He hasn't had much success against the Tigers in his career as he is 0-2 with a 3.72 ERA. Miguel Cabrera is 4-for-8 off him with two doubles while Nick Castellanos is 4-for-9 with a double. Justin Upton also had a homer and three RBIs in 8 plate appearances against him.

Detroit will start lefty Matt Boyd in this contest. Boyd has pitched extremely well recently after a rocky start. Over his last 3 appearances he is 1-0 with an impressive 1.17 ERA and a 17:3 K:BB ratio! What is most impressive about that is that 2 of those starts came on the road against very potent offenses in the Chicago White Sox and Toronto Blue Jays. Boyd has also been impressive at home this season having given up just 12 hits and 5 earned runs (just a single homerun) over 3 starts. The Tigers have also managed to win 5 of the last 6 games when he has started at home.

The Detroit Tigers are 21-10 in their last 31 home games. After coming off a successful road trips which included a series split with the White sox and a series sweep of the Red Sox, the Tigers will likely come into this contest with a ton of confidence. They have won five straight vs. the AL West and four in a row in Game 1 of a series. The oddsmakers had opened up the Tigers as the slight favorites in this contest, however the odds have shifted in Houston’s favor, however, they have shifted too much which has opened up value on the home team. We believe Detroit will find a way to win this game and give us a nice return as underdogs.

Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.