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July 25, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take Boston Red Sox (-124) on the ML against Detroit Tigers risking 3.72% to win 3%.
(Pomeranz must start for wager to have action)

The Detroit Tigers will likely be ripe for the picking tonight as they travel to Fenway Park to open up a series with the Boston Red Sox. As if facing the #1 offense in the league wasn't a daunting enough task, the Tigers will likely find themselves in a less than advantageous position tonight given what happened to them less than 24 hour ago.

Detroit was closing out a series against their direct rivals, the Chicago White Sox Sunday in what turned out to be a mini-doubleheader after Game 3 (Saturday) was suspended after 8 innings and had to be completed the next day. In Game 1, the Tigers rallied from a 3-1 deficit to tie the game up in the top of the 8th inning. Despite out-hitting their rivals and committing 1 less error, the White Sox managed to win Game 1 in walk off fashion as Adam Eaton singled in the game winning run in the bottom of the 9th inning. It was a dramatic end to the game and a disappointing way for the Tigers to lose.

In Game 2, the Tigers once again rallied back from a 4 run deficit to tie the game by scoring 3 runs in the top of the 9th inning. It was a furious rally but once again it was all for not as this time Miguel Cabrera hit a walk-off single to score Adam Eaton and give the White Sox yet another walk-off victory! It was a great win for Chicago, but was another absolutely crushing defeat for the Tigers. For them to lose not one, but both games in walk-off fashion and then have to travel to Fenway Park and take on the #1 offense in the Majors is simply too tall a task to overcome in this situation.

While Brad Ausmus' Tigers lost two games by 1-run leaving them frustrated and dejected, their opponents tonight managed to win a close game in their series finale with the Minnesota Twins. The Red Sox should come into this contest having gained a bit of their swagger back and extremely motivated. Boston needs to continue piling up the wins in what has been a very close race in the AL East. They are currently 1.5 games behind the division leading Baltimore Orioles and have a chance to possibly make up some ground as the Orioles are about to start a series with the high powered offense of the Colorado Rockies.

The Red sox have had plenty of experience against Tigers' starting pitcher, Justin Verlander and have had quite a bit of success against him as well. Verlander is having himself a solid season, but is in no way the same pitcher he was years ago. He has become hittable and with the Red Sox high powered offense coming into this contest with a lot of confidence; they should be able to get to the right hander tonight.

Drew Pomeranz will take the mound for the Red Sox tonight. While Pomeranz debut was certainly a rocky one, it was not completely unexpected. Nerves likely played a role in his first start in a Red Sox uniform as the Boston market comes with a lot of pressure. Having gotten his first start out of the way, we expect that he will have a much better showing on the mound tonight. Given the fact that Detroit doesn't have much experience against Pomeranz and the fact that they have struggled against left-handed pitchers, we believe he'll have an advantage on the mound and outduel his counterpart tonight.

Detroit also will be using somewhat of a make-shift lineup tonight as both Andrew Romine and Mike Aviles will be getting the start in the outfield. This is certainly a less than ideal situation for the Tigers to find themselves in not only from a matchup perspective but from a scheduling situation as well. Red Sox have been dominant at home (34-22) this season and with Mookie Betts back in the lineup, they should be able to exploit their numerous advantages tonight and come away with the victory. At these reduced odds, the value is on the home team tonight.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Red Sox are 13-4 at home when the total is set at 10 or more runs!
  • Red Sox are 4-1 against teams with winning records in the second half of the season.
  • The Red Sox are 11-0 since Apr 13th as a favorite after a game as a home favorite in which they allowed 6+ runs!

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