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July 24, 2016

There is one pick today.
 

Take Cleveland Indians (-133) on the ML against Baltimore Orioles risking 3.99% to win 3%.
(Kluber and Worley must start for wager to have action)

We were correct with our assessment yesterday, believing that the Baltimore Orioles had the advantage over the Indians and the O's came away with an easy victory that saw them lead comfortably from the very 1st inning! While Baltimore had the advantage yesterday, this afternoon poses a much different matchup and one that we believe will favor the Cleveland Indians.

The Tribe will have the day off tomorrow which means Terry Francona will have his full roster at his disposal. He will likely leave it all on the field to pick up the victory in this contest to avoid his team being swept. Buck Showalter meanwhile may have some restrictions poses on his team in this contest with a matchup set for tomorrow and will likely be without the services of closer Zach Britton. Britton will likely be unavailable in this contest after pitching in each of the last 4 days!

This is also Vance Worley's 4th start of the season as he's worked mostly in long relief situation this season. It's a well-known fact that starting a baseball game is much different than pitching in a relief setting and we don't believe Worley will last more than 5 innings in this contest unless he happens to get bailed out by his defense. Worley's WHIP is 1.700 at Camden Yards and we believe that is something that the Indians' bats will be able to exploit in this contest. Not only do we believe that Corey Kluber will outduel Worley on the mound this afternoon, but he should also outlast him in this contest as well. Without Britton being available and the fact that Brad Brach gave up two runs in yesterday's contest, which should also give the Tribe the advantage when it comes to bullpens in this contest as well.

One factor that is somewhat overlooked, but one that we feel is important is the fact that Matt Wieters will miss his 6th consecutive game today! That means that Caleb Joseph will once again be behind home plate and while he's a serviceable replacement, the fact that he's gone from a backup role to suddenly catching 6 straight days is problematic. Playing the Catcher position is tiring and comes with its fair share of bruises and in what will suddenly be his 6th consecutive start there, it wouldn't surprise us if fatigue was a factor and there was a passed ball or if Cleveland base-runners had some success swiping bags in this contest.

Cleveland's ability to play 'small ball' might just give them an edge in this contest as they have a number of players that can steal bases. Meanwhile the O's rank dead last in the Majors in that category with just 13 swipes on the season! The Cleveland offense has done poorly in first two games of this series with runners in scoring position but we believe that they have learned some valuable lessons and will do much better in plating runs this afternoon. Look for Cleveland to avoid the series sweep and come away with the victory in this contest.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Indians are 23-17 after a loss this season.
  • Indians are 32-12 when the total has been set at 8 or 8.5 runs this season!
  • Indians are 28-22 when playing a team with a winning record this season.



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