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July 23, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take Baltimore Orioles (-128) on the ML against Cleveland Indians risking 3.84% to win 3%.
(Gausman and Tomlin must start for wager to have action)

The matchup this afternoon between the Indians and Orioles is an interesting one for a number of reasons. First off, looking at the side by side comparison between both the teams themselves and the starting pitching matchup, it would appear to the casual observer that Cleveland is the overall "better team" in this matchup and therefore should be the favorite. We don't believe that to be the case however. These teams are both very evenly matched and currently have the lead in their respective divisions. This particular matchup, on this given day however is one that we believe favors the Orioles.

Josh Tomlin may have an impressive record (10-2) compared to that of Baltimore's Kevin Gausman (1-7) however these pitchers are much more similar than their record indicate. Tomlin has been somewhat fortunate this season in that he has received a ton of run support from his offense, while the same cannot be said of Gausman. He has also had one of the worst starting schedules in the Majors as a majority of his starts this season have been on the road (10 of 16). It's easy to forget just how good this kid has pitched in Camden Yards. He has allowed just 12 total runs in this ballpark this season and his ERA shrinks down to a very respectable 2.79 through 6 contests. While Tomlin may be having a good season statistically, he may be due to regress in this contest as the Orioles are no strangers to him and have hit him extremely hard in the past. In 5 career starts against the O's, Tomlin's ERA balloons up to 5.14 with a WHIP of 1.500!

The Orioles need to continue to pile up wins as they are in an extremely tight race in the AL East with the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays breathing down their necks. The Indians, meanwhile, have a bit of breathing room and can afford to stumble having already build a 6 game lead against their next closest rivals. A win from the O's would also, interestingly enough, give them the exact same record as the Tribe and further cement the fact that these two teams are much more even than their surface numbers suggest.

We've been used to seeing Gausman falter on the road, but we believe that with this game now being played at Camden Yards, this will give not only Gausman, but the O's themselves a huge advantage given the fact that they are an impressive 34-14 in this venue this season. This may be a close game, but in the end we expect the home team to string together the timely hits needed to pull out the victory. The value is with the home team in this contest.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Baltimore is 11-2 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season!
  • Baltimore is 19-5 at home after 1 or more consecutive 'unders' this season!
  • Baltimore has won its last 20 games as a home favorite, after a home game in which they did not score after the 3rd inning!

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