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July 21, 2016

There is one pick tonight.
 

Take the OVER 9 total runs in Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers for 3% of the bankroll.
(Liriano and Garza must both start for wager to have action)

This matchup could prove to be a slugfest tonight. You have two aging pitchers that are past their prime against two hot offenses that are capable of hitting home runs as well as playing 'small ball'! Then you have defenses, especially Milwaukee's that have some new parts and may miscommunicate on certain plays with all the moving parts, only increasing the probability of 'fielding errors' and unearned runs. What you end up with is a game that could finish with a 7-5 type of scoreline and may even go 'Over' after  6 of 7 innings!

Jonathan Villar and Starlin Marte lead the Majors in 'stolen bases' and that means opposing catchers and pitchers need to keep their eyes on them at all times. With so much of their focus on those two and other speedy base-runners that both teams possess, hitters at the plate have a better chance of doing damage against the pitchers than if there was no threat to swipe bags. It helps that both teams have players capable of 'going yard' as they do with the likes of Chris Carter and Ryan Braun for the Brew Crew and McCutchen and Freese for the Bucs! The fact that Liriano and Garza have both struggled with their command this season and issue a lot of 'walks' only gives the base-runners in this contest more opportunities to cross home plate.

Liriano leads the Majors in a category that no pitcher wants to, by handing out 'free passes' to 13.6% of batters he's faced! With the Brewers' ability to hit the ball deep, walks could turn into costly runs if he keeps up such tendencies! He's issued 5.66 walks per 9 innings and should have problems against an offense that can be patient and takes pitches! Matt Garza, on the other hand, has been even worse and is still searching for what would only be his 2nd quality start of the season. The veteran missed a big portion of the season out injured and is still not sharp. He has a 5.74 ERA on the season and has struggled against this Pittsburgh lineup!

The Brewers will be starting Jake Elmore and Hernan Perez in the outfield tonight for the first time! The trio of Braun-Elmore-Perez have very rarely worked together and communication and rapport will naturally not be there as much as it would be with the likes of Kirk Neuwenhuis and Ramon Flores. The Brewers are in rebuilding mode and are experimenting with their defense right about now. Jonathan Lucroy, who has terrible career numbers against Liriano but is an outstanding defensive catcher will be given the night off while Will Middlebrooks is once again starting at 3rd base. All in all, this isn't Milwaukee at their best and with all the new moving parts in their defense, it wouldn't surprise us if they made a couple of 'errors' tonight. Fielding errors sometimes lead to unearned runs which not only helps the scoreboard but greatly frustrates pitchers. With Liriano and Garza both being temperamental and capable of imploding on the mound, we believe neither are likely to do that well tonight. Both offenses got double-digit hits last night against the same type of pitcher, a lefty in Jeff Locke and a veteran righty in Chase Anderson! We believe there will be plenty of traffic on the bases again and if the next man can avoid hitting into double-plays, this game should be a high-scoring contest.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Opponents have a .328 batting average against Garza this season!
  • Brewers have gone 'Over' 5 of 6 times on the road when the total was set at 9 or 9.5 runs!
  • The 'Over' has hit 21 of 28 times when Pirates have played a team with a losing record!



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