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July 18, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take Baltimore Orioles (-113) on the ML against NY Yankees risking 3.39% to win 3%.
(Gausman and Nova must both start for wager to have action)

The Orioles open up a series with their division rivals the New York Yankees and this is a matchup where we believe the O's hold a significant advantage as they are the better team with the better pitcher on the mound for this contest.

Ivan Nova is a pitcher whose skillset has certainly been declining and it has shown this season given his unimpressive 5.18 ERA. This Baltimore lineup has also had their way with Nova in the past as Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, and Mark Trumbo all have at least a .368 batting average against him! We expect the Baltimore bats to be able to get to Nova early and often in this contest and they will have the extra motivation tonight coming off a loss yesterday afternoon against another division opponent.

As for the O's, they will send Kevin Gausman to the mound tonight. Gausman is a pitcher who should not be defined by his overall record as he has pitched much better than those numbers suggest. He has also had tremendous success against this Yankees lineup in the past as he owns an impressive 1.93 ERA over 7 lifetime starts which is a big reason why Buck Showalter moved back Gausman's start a day so he can face NY. The O's have also owned the Yankees this season having gone 4-2 over the first 6 meetings.

We believe Gausman will outduel Nova on the mound tonight and while everyone seems to be talking about the Yankees 7-8-9 combo, it's worth mentioning that the O's have just a strong a pen, who hasn't necessarily gotten the attention that they deserve. Britton has been the most consistent closer in AL while Brad Brach has been nearly automatic in the 8th inning.

While the Yankees managed to get back in the win column last night with a victory over David Price and the Boston Red Sox, but we expect their celebration to be short-lived. The Bronx Bombers have clear issues offensively as they only managed to plate a total of 3 runs on 11 total hits! We don't believe production like that will be enough to beat Baltimore in this contest. We expect this to be another close game, but the Orioles have significant advantages both on the mound and at the plate which should translate to a series opening victory against their division rivals.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Baltimore is 25-14 against teams with losing records.
  • Nova has allowed at least 4 runs in six of his last eight starts!
  • Orioles' 148 runs after the 7th inning leads the American League!

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