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July 17, 2016

There is one underdog pick today.

Take Minnesota Twins (+130) on the ML against Cleveland Indians risking 3% to win 3.9%.
(Tomlin must start for wager to have action)

The Minnesota Twins are coming off what can only be described as a confidence-building victory last night when they topped the Cleveland Indians in extra innings! The Twins rallied to send the game to extra innings and despite the inclimate weather and 2-hour rain delay in the latter stages of the contest, they stayed focused and did what they needed to snatch a 'W'. It was a morale-boosting walkoff win for a team that has had little to cheer about this season  and will send the team on the diamond with an extra bounce in their step this afternoon. On the other hand, it was an emotionally crushing defeat for the Indians who basically gave the game away due to an error! The Tribe are the better team but blew multiple opportunities to walk away with the win and we expect the results of last night's contest to have a lingering effect and carry over, given the quick turnaround. It's also worth noting that despite their stellar overall record, Cleveland has really struggled in high-scoring games, as they are just 2-9 in matchups that have a set Vegas total of 9 or 9.5 runs! 

The pitching matchup in this contest is also much closer than the raw numbers suggest. Tomlin has an impressive record for the Tribe but has not actually pitched as flawlessly as his record suggest. He has been bailed out many times by this offense and we believe it is only a matter of time before reality sets in and his numbers start to catch up with him. While Tomlin has been fortunate, the same can't be said for Kyle Gibson. Gibson has actually pitched better than his poor record indicates and has been more of a victim of lack of run support than mistakes. Missing extended time through injury didn't help him either but he's a solid enough hurler to be able to induce ground balls and get outs and might just do enough for Minnesota today.

We believe Paul Moritor's side will use the momentum from last night's game to win a rare home series against Indians. Even though Cleveland lost yesterday, they're still in a very comfortable position, up 6.5 games against closest AL Central rivals and on top of that, they head to Kansas City after this game! Their meeting with the Royals is arguably much more important to them than this series finale as they were recently swept, 3-0 in their last visit to Kansas City. The Twins are playing without pressure right now and that actually makes them a good baseball team since  they can play loose and free. This should arguably be a 50-50 game that can go either way, except one team has been installed as a significant underdog! All the value is with the capable underdogs in this contest.

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