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July 9, 2016

There is one pick today.

Take Cleveland Indians (-165) on the ML against NY Yankees risking 4.95% to win 3%.
(Salazar and Sabathia must both start for wager to have action)

This is a pitching mismatch as far as the starters are concerned. While the Yankees do have an excellent bullpen, they don't tend to bring in the likes of Betances, Miller and Chapman unless they have the lead going into the final 3 innings and we doubt that'll be the case this afternoon. That's because Danny Salazar is starting to fulfill his immense potential while CC Sabathia's best days are certainly behind him.

Salazar is 10-3 with a 2.36 ERA and is going to the All-Star game! The hard-throwing righty is crafty enough to mix up his pitches and catch hitters off-guard. He's a tough hurler to get a read on unless you have ample plate experience against him, something that no Yankee does. While they have faced him a couple of times in the past, no NY bat has more than than a handful of at-bats against Salazar and that only makes the challenge more difficult.

The Cleveland Indians, on the other hand, are very familiar with the veteran Sabathia. Not only is he a former Tribe player, he's one that they have faced many times since he left Cleveland. Some members of this lineup have even faced him as many as 40 times! The likes of Carlos Santana and Mike Napoli have taken him deep in the past and are more than capable of doing so again, given how well they're seeing the ball right now. In fact this Tribe offense as a whole has found its groove and is hitting dingers left, right and center right about now. The fact that Sabathia comes into this game slumping, with a 8.32 ERA over his last 3 starts is bad news against this hot-hitting offense!

The Cleveland fanbase is starting to pack Progressive Field full and that is a big boost to this ballclub. Terry Francona admitted that the capacity crowd has made a difference in their incredible run over the past month and gives his team much more confidence than earlier in the season, where crowd just over 10,000 would show up and many empty seats! The Indians have been the hottest team in baseball since June and are playing fearless baseball right now. They're going up against a hittable pitcher whom they are familiar with, with arguably their 'Ace'. If they can avoid hitting into double-plays, we believe they'll go up 2-1 in this series and take another game from the Yankees.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Yankees are 0-3 after allowing 10 or more runs in the last game.
  • Cleveland has won 16 of 20 home games when the total was set at 8 or 8.5 runs!
  • The Indians are a perfect 11-0 since August 2015 after a home game in which their started lasted 8 or more innings!

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