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July 2, 2016

There is one pick today.

Take San Diego Padres (-135) on the ML against NY Yankees risking 4.05% to win 3%.
(Drew Pomeranz must start for wager to have action)

The Padres are a team that is easy to overlook, however we believe that would be a mistake for the Yankees tonight since the Padres have a big advantage in this particular matchup. Drew Pomeranz has been a pleasant surprise for the Friars this season and has been one of the league's most consistent starting pitchers. He averages 10.43 strike-outs per 9 innings and is holding opponents to an impressive .190 batting average! In comparison, New York’s Ivan Nova has only has 2 quality starts in 10 trips to the mound this season and has especially struggled of late.

It's a well-known fact in baseball that left handed hitters generally tend to struggle against southpaw pitchers and that could well happen tonight. Many of the Yankees’ most dangerous bats are either lefties or switch-hitters whose power comes from that side. If Pomeranz can take out the likes of Ellsbury, Gardner, Teixeira and McCann, not to mention the red hot Didi Gregorius, who had an outstanding June, NY could have a difficult time scoring runs. Carlos Beltran is expected to miss another game and will be missed. The lack of familiarity and prior experience against the towering left-hander doesn't help the Yankees lineup either as very few have more than a handful of at-bats against Pomeranz.

The Padres may have fallen short of expectations; however this is still a team that has talent and a young manager that is eager to prove himself in Andy Green. We have seen the Friars light up the scoreboard this season and we wouldn't be surprised if they get to Ivan Nova tonight. The Padres aren't often listed as favorites and when they are, there is usually good reason for it. This is a pitching mismatch tonight and in his final start before the All-Star rosters gets announced, we expect Pomeranz to have another good outing and lead his team to victory. If the San Diego bullpen doesn’t let us down in the late innings, they have an excellent chance of winning this game.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Yankees have won only 2 of 8 interleague games!
  • Padres are 4-1 as a home favorite in the -125 to -150 range!
  • Yankees have won only 10 of 25 games against left-handed starters!
  • Yankees are 5-11 as a road underdog in the +100 to +125 range.

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