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July 1, 2016

There is one pick tonight.
 

Take NY Mets (+100) on the ML against Chicago Cubs risking 3% to win 3%.
(deGrom and Hammel must both start for wager to have action)

The New York Mets rallied from a 3-0 deficit last night to score a come-from-behind 4-3 victory over the Chicago Cubs. New York took the lead when Cubs' second baseman Javier Baez made an errant throw to first and allowed 2 runs to score to give the Mets the lead in the 7th inning. The Cubs had a chance to win the game in the 9th as they had a runner on 3rd base with the heart of the order coming up and no outs! Jeurys Familia was sensational closing out the game as he struck out both Bryant and Contreras, intentionally walked Rizzo and forced Javier Baez to pop-out to end the game. It was a huge confidence building win for the Mets while it was a crushing defeat for the Cubs and we expect that shift in momentum to carry over into this matchup.

We also believe that the Mets will have an edge on the mound tonight with Jacob deGrom. deGrom has pitched extremely well this season although his overall record is not a true representation of that as he has not recorded a win dating all the way back to April 30th! He has pitched extremely well and his lack of wins this season can be attributed to lack of run support and NOT the quality of his outings. His offense has scored only 2 runs for him in his previous 35 innings! However, they are likely to do better tonight given that they finally woke up last night and have had success against Hammel in the past.

Meanwhile, Jason Hammel could find himself in a pretty tough spot tonight. Not only have the Cubs lost his last 4 starts but Hammel has not been a quality pitcher in the month of July as he is 5-23 during this month in his career! He has also struggled when facing the Mets as evident by his 0-4 record with a 6.16 ERA! Guys like James Loney and Kelly Johnson have had great success against Hammel in the past and have hit him hard and we expect the Mets offense to have opportunities to put runs on the board tonight, at least before the bullpen takes over.

It's also worth mentioning that Hammel follows John Lackey in the rotation and that's something that could hurt him in this start. Both he and Lackey are very similar pitchers both in size and mechanics. That means Mets are likely to be a bit more comfortable tonight than they were against Lackey yesterday given they will now have some familiarity with a high release point from the right-hand, as opposed to having faced a lefty last night for example and having to switch to a righty tonight or a different style of pitcher. The more important factor however is the understanding between a pitcher and catcher. Willson Contreras is getting the start behind home plate for the Cubbies tonight and Hammel's previous outings have been with either veteran catcher David Ross or Miguel Montero. Now he has to be on the same page with the hard-hitting rookie and that may not be easy.

This is a matchup that we believe heavily favors the Mets and with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester scheduled to take the mound in the next two contests; this is arguably New York's best chance to pick up an important victory! This is a cheap price to lay with what we believe is the better pitcher. To top it off, there is a league wide system that has had a 62.9% success rate (100-59) over the last 5 seasons, which states to play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (NY Mets) with an on-base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, when starting a pitcher that gave up no earned runs in his last outing (deGrom). The value on this matchup is with the Mets as they could edge another close game.




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