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January 25, 2016 (3:56 PM ET)

Take Golden State Warriors at -4.5 spread against San Antonio Spurs for 3% of the bankroll.

The most anticipated regular season NBA game in years is set to take place at the Oracle Arena tonight. That's because these two teams have been on a collision course for some time and are both making history on an almost nightly basis! The Warriors have won 38 straight home games and have not lost in this venue for nearly an entire year, an overtime defeat to the Chicago Bulls! Since then, they have been nothing short of dominant and are even defending champions and yet the one team that refuses to go away and has stolen some of their spotlight is perennial contender, San Antonio.

The Spurs have won 13 straight games coming into this contest and are now just 2 games behind the Warriors in the Western conference standings! They are knocking on their door and the MVP (Steph Curry) and company know that to fully prove all doubters wrong, they must beat San Antonio. That's because while Golden State has dismantled each and every opponent, they haven't had their way with Gregg Popovich's side yet. The Texas veterans have taken 4 of the last 5 meetings at Oracle Arena and most recently beat them in San Antonio last April. The Warriors have revenge in mind and this is in fact the only team in the NBA that they need to 'settle the score' with.

Both teams have been nothing short of dominant at home and are currently undefeated there with Golden State compiling a 20-0 record while the Spurs are 24-0 in San Antonio! The two do have a combined 10 losses on the road however and have not been as flawless on their travels. The fact that this game is being played in the Bay Area gives the Warriors a huge home court advantage therefore and one that should not be underestimated given the aforementioned records. Golden State has covered far bigger spreads this season and many times almost 'accidentally', meaning their execution and play has been so sublime that even when not fully motivated to 'make a statement', they've taken care of the line. Now in a marquee matchup against the former champions and their only legitimate West rival, Steve Kerr's side will be hungry to send a loud and clear message just as they did to East rivals, Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls! And while the Spurs are a superior team to those two, we don't believe they will be able to keep up tonight.

Popovich's veteran crew opened at +3 underdogs but finds itself taking 4.5 points now after sharp money came in on the defending champions and it was also announced that Tim Duncan would not participate tonight. The future hall of famer, affectionally known as 'The Big Fundamental', may be averaging less points and minutes than in recent years but he's the captain and leader of this squad. Defensively, he's been an anchor for this team and is often the first to communicate with teammates to make sure everyone is fully organized and understands their specific assignment! In what will be their most challenging game of the season, we believe they will miss his presence. That won't be the only matchup problem for them however as we we just don't see how the likes of Tony Parker and Danny Green can keep the likes of Curry and Klay Thompson quiet. Both teams rely on excellent ball movement but at the end of the day, the Warriors have more playmakers and are also more stout defensively than often given credit for. They play the game at a pace that they've 'perfected' and have great balance on both sides of the ball. Their bench is one of the deepest and best in the league and that could be a factor as key contributors such as Livingston, Iguodala, Ezeli could play an important role as each offers a unique strength which allows the coaching staff to make changes as the game goes on.

Not much negative can be said about the San Antonio Spurs. They are the second best team in the NBA in our opinion and are a model franchise when it comes to continuity, stability and excellence! The issue for them is that they are going up against the one team that is superior; A squad that is not only the current defending champions but one that is chasing history and is one of the very best ever! Popovich's side has been beaten 6 times already on the road this season and is likely to experience defeat #7 tonight. The Warriors have their sights set on matching and then breaking Chicago Bulls' 44-game home winning streak from the mid 90's and realize that the biggest obstacle on that path is this particular matchup against the 2nd placed Spurs! No team has been able to stand in Golden State's way when they are focused and motivated and they most certainly will be tonight. We expect them to get another W and cover this relatively short spread in the process.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Warriors have not lost at Oracle Arena since January 2015!
  • Warriors are 20-7 ATS after 2 days of rest over the last two seasons!
  • Warriors have won their home games (20-0 record) by an average of 15.2 points!



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