January 15, 2016 (4:00 PM ET)
There are 3 suggested wagers tonight.
1) Take Washington Wizards at +7 spread against Indiana Pacers for 3% of the bankroll.
The Wizards received a big boost to their rotation as Bradley Beal returned to the court on Wednesday against the Bucks after missing more than a month with a leg injury. Washington will likely ease Beal back into the rotation, but he did manage to finish with 11 points and three assists off the bench in that contest. Having already had a game under his belt, we expect him to be much more active in this contest as he will have likely shaken off most of the rust from sitting on the sidelines the last few weeks.
In their win over the Bucks, the Wizards got contributions from nearly everywhere on the floor as seven players scored in double figures in that contest. It was one of the better demonstrations of a full team effort that the Wizards had displayed this season and we expect that mindset to carry over into this contest tonight. Washington forced Milwaukee into 27 turnovers in that contest which led to 36 points and John Wall led the team with 10 of his 19 points in the 4th quarter to secure the win. We expect Wall to have a big game tonight as he will be matchup up against an undersized Monte Ellis. It has been reported that PG George Hill missed shoot-around this afternoon and is questionable to play in tonight game. If Hill is missing from the lineup, that is a huge loss for the Pacers and only adds to the advantage that Washington should have in this contest. And if he is playing, having missed shootaround won't help his rhythm and he may still be in his head about the 'personal matter' that he had to deal with earlier in the day.
The Wizards will look to keep momentum going in this contest and motivation should not be a factor for this matchup. This is a big time revenge game for the Wizards as the last time these two teams met; Washington was embarrassed on their home court. The Pacers managed to sink a franchise record 19 three-pointers in that contest to come away with a 123-106 win in DC! That is a memorythat does not sit very well with the Wizard players and John Wall even took to the media an admitted that his team would be looking for payback and will do a much better job of guarding the perimeter in this contest. We expect that to be the case tonight. While the Wizards likely won't be able to completely defend the 3 point line, we don't expect the Pacers to hit the absurd 73% from long range as they did in the last meeting!
The Wizards have now won three in a row and have quietly regained some of their swagger. Kelly Oubre will likely get to see some action tonight and the rookie has shown growth and should be feeling quite confident about himself. At the end of the day, we do feel that this line is slightly inflated. The Wizards are a quality team and have the ability to get their revenge and win this game outright. We feel that they are live underdogs in this contest. Even if they fall short of the outright victory, this is simply too many points to be spotting the Wizards in what we believe will be a closely contested matchup.
Other notable facts to consider:
- The Wizards have covered the spread in their last 4 road games.
- The road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 Indiana/Washington series!
- The Wizards are a perfect 5-0 ATS as 6.5 to 9 point road underdogs this season!
2) Take Portland Blazers at -4 spread against Brooklyn Nets for 3% of the bankroll.
The Trail Blazers come into this game confident and motivated. Having knocked off Oklahoma CityThunder, they followed that up with another divisional win against a direct playoff rival, Utah Jazz, to pull within just one game back! That victory was crucial as it greatly boosted their post-season hopes and aspirations. The fact that Utah fell short at home against the Kings last night means Portland is now just a game behind in the Western conference standings and has its sights set firmly on that 8th and final playoff spot. They know it won't come easily however as a number of other teams are also in contention and that should bring them the desired focus and intensity.
Having lost no less than 4 starters from last year's team, it was always going to take the Blazers some time to adjust to their new personnel and playing style. A few months into the season, it is now clear that the squad has gelled and is clicking together. Each player seems to have a clear idea of their specific role and function and Terry Stotts deserves great credit for that. Portland has a huge matchup advantage at the guard positions tonight as Lillard and McCollum have been absolutely sensational. That dynamic tandem is among the highest scoring back-court duos in the league and pretty much takes turns carving out opposing defenses. This was always going to be a tough matchup for Brooklyn even with the veteran Jarrett Jack on court, but the fact that he's out for the season and Donald Sloan and Shane Larkin will share minutes at the PG position makes this an even more daunting task.
This is the Blazers' first road game after a 5-game homestand and that means they won't have 'tired legs' as much as teams generally do a few games into an extended road trip. Portland is fresh and ready to go having played only 2 games over the last five days. At the same time, with this being a road game, they will be focused knowing that wins don't come as easily for them when not giving 100% as they do at the Moda Center. That means there will no complacency since winning on the road is no given at the NBA level and coach Stotts will be reminding his team of that. The fact that his team were beaten by double-digits here last year will help him have the squad's full attention and put them on alert from the very beginning. This Brooklyn team is of course a shadow of what it was over the last 2 years when they made the playoffs but nonetheless, a previous result like that, helps a coach motivate the visiting club so as not to take them lightly.
The Nets fired head coach Lionel Hollins a few days ago but the blame should not lie with him. This is a franchise in turmoil after one poor strategic decision by the front office after another. Interim coach, Tony Brown, will not fix these problems overnight. They got up for their New York rivalry game against the Knicks two nights ago and that was understandable. Now having won for the first time in 11 home games, we believe they'll revert back to their lackluster efforts which should see Portland come out on top. Afterall, the Blazers are very much in the playoff hunt, currently sitting in 9th place while the Nets are the second worst team in the East and that's only because the 76ers are having one of the worst seasons in NBA history! They may not be mathematically out of it just yet but they are all but eliminated for all intents and purposes. They realize that and so does everyone else. This is a team that needs to undergo a big rebuilding process and has already started it by changing the role of former GM, Billy King and firing its coach. It wouldn't surprise us if they gave fringe players time on the court over the next few months to see what they are capable of as opposed to simply focusing on winning games. At 11-28 on the season, it's a bit too late for them. To make matters worse, they haven't had much of a home-court advantage in this venue since fans have in fact been vocal about their disappointment, leading to additional pressure. The Nets have lost twice as many games at the Barclay's Center than they have won and should find it tough again tonight.
The athletic Mason Plumlee has integrated into the Blazers setup very well after coming over from the Nets and will have a point to prove in his return to Brooklyn tonight! He won't have an easy time against Brook Lopez but the rest of his teammates should take advantage of their matchups. Look for Al-Farouq Aminu to do a little bit of everything while young Meyers Leonard can stretch the floor and hit 3-pointers like few other bigs. Willie Reed had been contributing off the bench for Brooklyn recently but will sit this one out. The Portland rotation is healthier and more diverse as the staff have more weapons at their disposal than than the Nets. Brooklyn's offense can go stagnant at times and often relies on isolation plays by Joe Johnson, who is no longer the player that he used to be. Look for the better team to grab a road win here and barring a late backdoor cover, cover this short spread in the process.
3) Take Miami Heat at -2 spread against Denver Nuggets for 3% of the bankroll.
Two nights ago, Sports Profit System backed the Nuggets as they shocked the world by handing Golden State what was only its 3rd loss of the season! Tonight, we believe it is wise to go against them. That's because Denver did not play particularly well and yet scored a headline-making victory that puts them in a let-down spot tonight. The Nuggets bucketed 33 of 37 free-throw attempts in that game which is an anomaly for a club that doesn't always do well from the charity stripe! Look for that percentage to regress back to the mean against a motivated and angry Miami Heat. The Heat have now dropped 3 straight games and that does not sit well with them. This is a squad made up of largely proud veterans that hate losing. They often up their effort in such situations to snap their slide and we expect to see that tonight! They had the game against Clippers in the bag before a disatrous second half effort that they'll want to bounce back from. Coach Erik Spoelstra has often had difficulities getting his side motivated when riding winning streaks but doesn't have to say or do much when the team has lost 3 or more as they are 9-3 in such situations over the last 3 seasons! Given the short spread here, a win will likely bring the cover with it as well since the Heat are laying only 2 points in this spot.
Jusuf Nurkic can be arrogant and make bone-headed plays at times but the Nuggets are a much better defensive club with him on the court than without. The young Bosnian sprainked his ankle in the game against the Warriors and is set to sit this one out. Meanwhile towering Center, Hassan Whiteside is a game-time decision for Miami but we expect him to take the court and help the team block shots and get rebounds as he enjoyed 27 minutes of playing time in LA recently and did not suffer a setback. He is a huge presence around the post and utilizes his size well to bully the opposition. D-Wade and Gerald Green should be efficient with their shots tonight but when they do miss, Whiteside often grabs offensive boards that allow the Heat second-chance opportunities.
Danilo Gallinari is the key man to stop in this contest and the Heat have two capable defenders in Luol Deng and Justice Winslow to share that assignment. Miami is a one of the best defensive clubs in NBA and that is something that can not be said about the Nuggets despite their best recent efforts. The Heat have the ability to get key stops at crucial moments in the game and we expect them to show their experience and do so again. This Denver team is coming off cloud nine after knocking off the Warriors but still has a lot to learn. They are a young group and will find it challenging against a motivated ball club like Miami looking to snap a 3-game losing streak. They know how competitive the Eastern conference is this season and have lost some ground over the past few games. They know they must get back on track to stay in the playoff spots and should grab the W on the road tonight. The fact that they're coming off a game where they had a season-high 24 turnovers means they will take better care of the ball and that should go a long way toward securing the win.
Other notable facts to consider:
- The Nuggets have won just 3 of 18 games against teams with winning records!
- The Heat are 9-1 ATS since May 2012 after Wade had 5 or more turnovers in a road loss!
- The Heat are a perfect 11-0 ATS on the road when playing with rest after grabbing 5 or less offensive boards!
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