January 5, 2016 (4:53 PM ET)
A 3rd pick has been added. The other two were posted before 3:00 PM ET.
Sports Profit System doesn't release 'totals' often but when it did, it was very successful last year going 31-15 with Over/Under picks in 2015! It was by far by the best mark in the industry (67%) and the fact that it was over the course of an entire year proved that it was not a fluke or a temporary streak. It should be noted however, that this year, we have already lost one such wager on January 1st.
1) Take Utah State at +2 spread against Boise State for 3% of the bankroll.
The Boise State Broncos have an explosive player in Joe Webb; however the Utah State Aggies may have an answer to him in fellow forward Jalen Moore. Over the last four games, the junior is averaging 17.8 points while going 9-for-19 from beyond the arc! Moore may be able to do what very few have done this season and that is to contain Webb, but even if he cannot, we do believe that he can at least match him on the offensive side.
These are two squads that are certainly no strangers to each other. Last year each team managed to win on the other's home floor and these two teams have split the last 4 meetings, with the combined victory margin being just 16 points! It's important to note however that the Aggies are actually 7-1 ATS in the last 8 series meetings and 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Utah! This is not the same Broncos team that we have seen in years past and they have already shown their struggles on the road going just 1-2 in true road games this season. We believe they will struggle again tonight.
History shows that these two teams have typically played in closely contested contests and this matchup should be no different. Both teams have playmakers on both sides of the ball and with the Aggies already trailing Boise State by one game in the Mountain West, the Utah State players will be motivated in this contest. Their home crowd will act accordingly, sensing the urgency. Dee Glen Stadium is a raucous place and the Broncos could have their fair share of struggles with the noise from the home crowd. We expect the Aggies to pull off the outright upset but even if that is not the case, the extra 2 point basket could prove to be valuable.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Boise State is 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
- Utah State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against the Mountain West
- Boise State is 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning records!
- Utah State is 35-15-3 ATS in their last 53 home games against teams with losing road records.
2) Take Buffalo at +3 spread (buy half a point) against Akron for 3% of the bankroll.
The Akron Zips are 11-2 on the season and have won eight straight games but it's important to mention that none of them have been against top-level competition. They have had a soft non-conference schedule and that could come back to hurt them in contest as conference play begins tonight. The Zips have also been playing without their 6-11, 245-pound center Pat Forsythe due to a sprained ankle. Forsythe has been a driving force on this team and accounts for an average of 11.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game! He's questionable for this contest and even if it is decided that he will play, he is not at 100%. On the season, Akron is averaging 77.5 points per game on 42.6% shooting from the field and 38.8% shooting from beyond the arc. The Zips average 11.2 three-pointers per game and are a team that relies largely on the 3-ball.
The Buffalo Bulls are just 7-6 on the season, which is something that makes this short spread stand out. The majority of the betting public have taken a look at the surface comparison between these two sqauds and noticed that this matchup pits an supposedly 'impressive' 11-2 team against a 'mediocre' 7-6 bunch. The fact that the oddsmakers opened this line with the Zips only as very slight favorites is a telling sign. Looking past their overall records, it's important to note that Buffalo is averaging 74.5 points per game and just shooting 40.7 percent from the field, but at home, they are averaging 83.0 points and shooting 46.4%! They are a solid team on the glass and should win the battle of the boards tonight.
Akron is one of the better teams in the MAC conference but they have shown their struggles on the road, especially in conference play. They have dropped their last 3 visits to Buffalo and we wouldn't be surprised if that continued tonight. Buffalo is a much better team on their home floor and have a chance to open up conference play against one of the favorites to win the conference this season. The Bulls will no doubt be motivated for this contest and have the backing of their home crowd to guide them to what we believe will be the outright victory. In what should be a closely contested game, the two extra points are precious and act as added insurance.
3) Take the UNDER 203 total points in NY Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks for 3% of the bankroll.
When two teams frequently play each other, the scouting report gets a lot more in-depth as the players get a much better handle on how to contain the opposition. That's especially true when they face off several times over a relatively short period of time. This is the 4th and final game of the season between Knicks and Hawks and their third meeting in 11 days! To say coaches Mike Budenholzer and Derek Fisher's respective staff have learned a lot about their opponents' tendencies would be an understatement. Both will come up with concrete strategies on how to better guard the playmakers of their opponents and that should limit the scoring in this contest.
Arron Afflalo could be a prime example. The formar Magic guard exploded for a season-high 38 points on Sunday against these same Hawks but had previously averaged just 8.9 points in over 20 games vs. Atlanta! The Hawks may give up double-digit points to him again tonight but should be able to keep a much better tab on him overall and limit his production as they often have in the past. Budenholzer will be demanding a better defensive effort from his squad tonight. He'll be emphasizing the importance of communication and defensive concentration given that his side have allowed their last 2 opponents to shoot over 50% from the field! That is a rare occurence and will not have pleased him. We would be highly surprised if they allowed the Knicks to shoot such a high percentage again.
The presence of Robin Lopez in the New York starting lineup gives them a legitimate rim-protector! He doesn't normally contribute much offensively but does impact the shot-selection and efficiency of opponents. Rookie sensation, Kristaps Porzingis is another whose defensive skillset goes somewhat unnoticed. His offense has been impressive at times but the more consistent part of his game has been on the other end of the court where he's averaged nearly 2 blocks per game! He and others have a height advantage over Al Horford and Paul Millsap and should grab pivotal rebounds that limit the 2nd chance opportunities of a dangerous offensive team like Atlanta. NY bigs will also grab their fair share of offensive boards but they aren't as capable of turning it into points as their opponents.
The previous 3 meetings between the two clubs has gone 'over' the set number this season and that has the betting public jumping on the bandwagon. The casual sports-bettor looks at obvious trends like that which are readily-available to the public and quickly makes its mind up. As if the bookmakers are not aware of such patterns and don't make adjustments. Not only that, they fail to take into account that the coaching staff and the players consistently make strategic changes based on previous results. The fact that 8 of the last 9 games Atlanta has participated in have gone 'over' has the 'Average Joe' drooling! He simply expects history to continue repeating itself which is naive to say the least. The savvy investor knows all about obvious as well as more subtle statistics and is one step ahead of the game knowing when to buck certain trends and when to follow them.
Matt Boland, John Goble and Marat Kogut are the 3 referees in charge of officiating the game tonight. True NBA experts know the tendencies of each ref and in particular how often they blow their whistles. Over the course of a season, it is an important but often overlooked part of handicapping. This officiating crew is one that doesn't typically have high-scoring games. Matt Boland is the head of the crew and it's worth noting that the 'Under' is 17-6 in his games this season with a total of just 196.6 points put up on the scoreboard on average. The 'Under' has similarly been a big hit in Kogut and Goble games especially when the Vegas number has been around the 205 mark! If they don't deviate from the norm and suddenly officiate a much more strict game, putting teams in bonus early, we anticipate a lower scoring game than this total suggests. Sharp money has come in on the 'Under' which is why this number has fallen from 204.5 points earlier today to 203 despite the fact that over 70% of bettors are expecting a high-scoring affair.
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