February 29, 2016 (3:44 PM ET)
There are 2 picks tonight. Please scroll down to view them.
Sports Profit System would like to sincerely apologize to clients for what has been the worst losing streak in SPS’s history! We are fully aware of our recent poor performance and understand the anger and frustration that members might feel. We would like to take a moment to go over a few important points.
First of all, results are all that matter. The handicapping team, operations department and SPS executives all understand the paramount importance of picking winners. If that was not the case or if we were not convinced of our expertise, SPS would not have set the industry benchmark by documenting every win and loss and showing a full archive of past picks, something very few other services do. We have proven year after year that sports betting can be a very lucrative investment and 2016 will be no different. We are only two months into a 12-month period and refuse to let that define us. In 2015, we endured 3 losing months and yet it was a hugely profitable year! The only difference is that we got off to a hot start in 2015 and then had a rough time before getting back to winning ways, while this year, the order has been reversed. Needless to say, long term clients will remember that SPS put together 7 consecutive winning months at one stage in 2015 and is entirely capable of doing the same, if not better this year! There are ten full months left of this year and we remain as confident as ever about hitting our annual targets (units and percentages).
We would also like to reassure everyone that nothing has changed in our handicapping process or team. These are still the same individuals that have produced countless winners in the past. They are working hard and recent results are by no means due to a lack of effort. The fact is that all cappers go through hot and cold spells. What is however, highly unlikely, but has unfortunately happened recently is when multiple handicappers go through these cold streaks at the same time, compounding losses and severely impacting short-term results. That being said, SPS takes winning and results very seriously and all handicappers’ performances will be evaluated at the end of the season.
Last but not least, it is natural to wonder if you should stop betting or jump ship during a losing run. The choice is yours but we strongly urge you not to do so because that is not in YOUR best interest. We have proven our success time and time again, over a much larger sample size and would like to reiterate the truly uncharacteristic and unprecedented length of this losing period in SPS history. Statistically speaking then, it will likely take another 5 years, if not an entire decade, for another such streak to come about. It is therefore much more likely that results will regress to SPS’s normal winning averages and hence very lucrative periods lie ahead. This is why it would make no sense for members to jump off, having already experienced the worst! Especially since losing streaks are often followed by winning ones and to miss out on them would be hugely disappointing.
We would like to thank members for their continued patience as we work to turn this around and quickly get back on track.
1) Take Boston Celtics at -5 spread against Utah Jazz for 3% of the bankroll.
The Celtics will look to take full advantage of the fact that the only two teams ahead of them in the Eastern conference (Cavs & Raptors) both lost yesterday. Boston currently sits 3rd in the East and is a team that 'dares to dream'. They are an ambitious group that has its sights set on the Atlantic division crown! While catching up with Toronto is a lofty goal and could be quite difficult, Brad Stevens' confident club will give it a go. If they secure a W tonight, they not only inch closer in the standings but it'll mark their 11th consecutive home win which is their most since 2013!
This is a matchup that the C's will be greatly motivated for. That's because they have a score to settle with Utah after losing by 18 points to them just ten days ago! That was their first game back from the All-Star break and one that they'd like to avenge. This squad is 17-10 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss this season! Therefore this is a situation in which they've often excelled. They 'get up' for games against opponents that have previously gotten the better of them, and this one in particular will be fresh on their minds given that it happened so recently! Boston hasn't been merciful to other opponents in this type of scenario and we don't expect them to change their mentality tonight.
Isaiah Thomas finally got the recognition he deserves this year after being named an All-Star! The dimunitive PG runs a very balanced and potent offense and is often the key to closing games out as he likes the ball in his hands and can play both as a fasciliator and as a shooter, whether it be from the foul line where he hits a very high percentage or in set isolations. The fact that Thomas is coming off one of his worst stat lines of the season (only 12 points and 4 assists) will fuel his fire to perform better tonight. He also had 3 turnovers and only one steal in that contest against Miami when he's normally much more efficient. The fact that Boston not only won that game but covered the spread as well despite a rare off-performance from its best player is a testament to how deep and talented this roster is. Nonetheless, we believe the tricky southpaw is capable of much more and should bounce back tonight.
The Jazz have a good coach of their own in Quin Snyder and are a good defensive club. The issue for them is that this isn't a 'naturally confident' squad and when losses come consecutively, some of their players tend to doubt themselves. The team from Salt Lake City is coming off back to back defeats and might be short on confidence after losing at home to the Brooklyn Nets! The loss to San Antonio Spurs could be understood but the follow up effort when hosting East's 2nd worst team hurt their aspirations as they now sit in the 9th position, just behind the Rockets who currently occupy that 8th and final post-season spot. Utah is a good team and will have its chances to make the playoffs but this particular game will present insurmountable challenges for them.
Facing a red hot Celtics team that has averaged 112.2 points (behind only Golden State) since January 12th is a daunting enough task, doing so off back to back losses makes it even tougher. Then there's the fact that that the Jazz play much better at home than on the road. This young squad has lost twice as many games (18) as it has won (9) on the road this season! It won't help their cause that one of their veteran players and a key contributor off the bench in Trevor Booker will miss the game due to personal reasons. The former Wizard is a high-energy player that often sparks this team by grabbing big rebounds, blocking a shot or scoring inside the paint. He averages about 20 minutes per game despite not being a starter and will be missed tonight. It'll likely be up to the Canadian Trey Lyles to fill his spot and while he's a talented player, he may not be as sharp given that he's had very little playing time in recent games.
The Celtics will want to make it 11 in a row at home and avenge that ugly loss to the Jazz ten days ago! They have a great chance to do so given that they are 19-10 at the Garden this season. Brad Stevens is a candidate for Coach of the Year and rightly so as he's assembled a hardworking and under-rated group of players that leave it all out on the court and seem to generally like playing together. He's also shown his genius through designed plays coming out of time-outs. Back the home side in this one as they are not only the better team but one that has no shortage of incentives. Coach Stevens admitted to the media that they look forward to this game having been 'punched in the mouth' by Utah on February 19th.
2) Take Texas at +3 spread against Kansas for 3% of the bankroll.
The Kansas Jayhawks find themselves in an interesting position tonight as they travel to Austin Texas to take on the Longhorns. There is no question that Kansas is one of the elite programs in the country. They have won 9 straight games, are ranked #2 in the country and for the 12th year in a row, they have laid claim to at least a share of the Big 12 regular season championship. The Jayhawks claimed their 12th title with a win this past Saturday over Texas Tech. What Bill Self and his team have built over the last decade is nothing short of impressive, however after celebrating such a huge accomplishment, it leaves them open for a potential letdown in this contest.
Heading into the season, many had expected the Longhorns to go through a transition period this year under new head coach Shaka Smart, and while they did have their fair share of struggles early on, they are playing great basketball at the moment and are just a single victory away from their 16th, 20 win season in the last 17 years. They have been extremely tough on their home court this season compiling a 12-2 record and have shown their ability to elevate their game in high profile matchups this season. The Longhorns are 4-1 this season over teams ranked in the Top 25 including wins over then #1 North Carolina and most recently, #3 Oklahoma this past Saturday so they are certainly capable of pulling off the upset tonight. The Longhorns are currently in a three-way tie for third place in the Big 12, one game behind second place West Virginia. They are a balanced team that is scoring 72.6 points per game on offense on 43.8% shooting from the field. Isaiah Taylor leads the team with 15.5 points and five assists per game. They are also solid on the defensive end as they rank 75th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing an average of 67.8 points a night on 41.2% shooting.
This is also a revenge game for Texas and they will have a chance to even up the season series at home tonight. They two teams met back on Jan 23 in a game at Allen Fieldhouse that Kansas was somewhat fortunate to win. Center Prince Ibeh was an absolute nightmare for the Jayhawks under the rim and blocked a career-high seven shots in that matchup. He has 55 on the season. Texas actually led that game, 35-30 at the half, but were outscored by 14 in the second. The Longhorns shot 48.2% for the game, but were outrebounded 36-29 and went ice cold from the field late in the game. Losing at Allen Fieldhouse is nothing to be ashamed of considering how dominant the Jayhawks have been under head coach Bill Self (200-9) but the fact that Texas was able to remain competitive in that venue speaks volume on how well they match up with Kansas. With them now being at home, we believe they use the first meeting as motivation to even up the score.
This is also 'Senior Night' for the Longhorns as this is their final home game of the season. What a fitting end to the season it would be, not only for Shaka Smart to close out the year with a win over Kansas at home, but for the seniors who have put their heart and souls into this program. We believe the atmosphere will be electric at the Frank Erwin Center tonight and that the Longhorn players will feed off of that energy to carry them to an upset win tonight. We fully believe that Texas will pull off the outright victory tonight; however, even if they fall short, we believe they can keep things within a single possession in which case the points could prove to be valuable at the end.
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