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February 22, 2016 (2:01 PM ET)

Sports Profit System wins and loses with its clients. That's because no one wagers bigger on these picks than we do! Experience has taught us to remain unfazed by streaks, whether hot or cold because they are temporary. What defines true success are seasonal and more importantly annual results (large sample size) and those numbers prove expertise. That is why we risk our own hard-earned money on these picks and will continue to do so. There are naturally some ups and downs but these selections have enlarged our bankroll over the last 4 years bringing in an outstanding rate of return. In 2015, we had 9 winning months and 3 losing ones and that resulted in another incredibly lucrative year! This year will be no different.

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Take Golden State Warriors at -6 spread against Atlanta Hawks for 3% of the bankroll.

The Warriors are not only the best team in the league but one of the very finest in NBA history! They are capable of completely outplaying most opponents and are only ever dangerous to back when laying bigger spreads and that mainly due to backdoor covers. That should not be a concern tonight. That's because Steve Kerr's side will be on high alert in this contest. Golden State is just 1-1 since the All-Star break and had an unnecessary late scare in LA against the Clippers despite dominating that game for 46 minutes. A late 13-0 run by the hosts in 'garbage time' saw them climb out of a big hole to pull within a single possession! The fact that the Clippers had the chance to send the game to overtime with a late 3 left the Warrior coaching staff fuming. They'll have made that a point of emphasis in the buildup to this next game and won't take their foot off the gas pedal in this matchup. We believe that late scare will prove beneficial for us tonight as they aren't as likely to rest all of their key players down the stretch or will at least have the 2nd unit better prepared and more up to the task. It's also worth noting that Steph Curry had a rare off-shooting night against LA as he was just 5-for-15 from the field! Look for the MVP to bounce back and be back to his usually efficient self, especially against a defense that has had a tough time stopping anyone lately.

The defending champs have gotten even better and are a more polished team than they were a year ago at this time but the Hawks have regressed after finishing as the #1 seed in the East and are no longer a top team. They are still a good side but can hardly be labeled 'elite', a category that tonight's opponents essentially define. We believe it is only a matter of time before Golden State mounts a double-digit lead in this matchup and this time we don't expect them to fumble away the cover as they did in their last game. The Warriors can become the fastest team in NBA history to reach 50 wins and that is an incredibly motivating factor! This is an ambitious squad that has set all kinds of new records and milestones over the past twelve months and has its sights set firmly on more. The Warriors have not covered the spread in their last 4 games and that has casual fans staying away when in fact, this is one of the few games, in which they are not facing an inflated line and there is therefore great value in backing them.

The fact that Golden State has underperformed in its two games since the All-Star break will help their backers tonight. That's because even though they won the game against Chris Paul and company, the way it ended left a real bitter taste in their mouth! For a 17-point lead to turn into a 3-point win was admittedly disappointing for players and staff alike and we expect them to atone for that tonight. They'll step on the court with renewed concentration in Atlanta and when that is the case, teams have a very difficult time keeping up on the scoreboard. This game is likely to be a shootout given the 225 points set total. In high-scoring affairs, it is easier for favorites to cover a spread than in low-scoring defensive ones. Another factor that gives the Warriors the edge in this contest is that this is precisely the type of game that Golden State has often participated in. It's not uncommon to see their games have such high totals but even though Hawks are a good offensive team, they have not been involved in complete shootouts. Only 4 of their games have had totals bigger than 210 points this season, showing that this is hardly the 'normal range' for them and quite a bit out of their comfort zone. The Warriors on the other hand have seen 38 of their games installed with totals of +210 points! Vegas has set a Golden State-like total for this matchup even though ATL is hosting it, and that shows they anticipate Warriors will dictate the pace and tempo.

As if the NBA leaders did not have enough incentive to put on a strong showing tonight, they all remember what happened in their last visit to Atlanta. They were defeated on their trip here last year and that means they won't be taking them lightly. Golden State will want to avenge that loss, just as it has done with every other opponent it had previously lost to. Mike Budenholzer's club is coming off a double overtime home loss to Milwaukee! It was a deflating defeat that left this squad short on confidence. That is not good news when facing elite competion. To work so hard, only to fall short, especially in front of their fans, has seen pressure mount on the Hawks. Look for the better team to pull away in this contest and this time finish the job instead of letting their opponents back in the game as they did last time out.




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