February 17, 2016 (2:45 PM ET)
Take St. Joseph's at -1 spread (buy half a point) against Dayton for 3% of the bankroll.
The St Joe's Redhawks have put together a quality season thus far and come into this contest with a 21-4 overall record and are 10-2 in the conference. While they are in contention for an at-large big in this year's NCAA tournament, they are still in need of that one resume building win, and a win tonight over the highly ranked Dayton Flyers would surely cement their place in the Big Dance. You can expect an all-out effort from the Redhawks' players in this contest.
St. Joe's has been a team that has been solid on both side of the ball this season as they rank 119th in the country in scoring offense and 73rd in total defense. This is an area where we expect the Redhawks to shine as they are ranked 12th in the country in defending the three-pointer, which could take away an advantage that the Flyers have usually had in their contests. The Redhawks have recently picked up three straight dominating wins including a standout 84-66 win coming on the road against George Washington. The St. Joe's players should come into this contest well rested as they used 16 players in their most win, which gave their starters rest, because the game was a blowout. We expect the extra rest to allow the Redhawks to come out of the gate firing and establish the pace of the game early. Not only would another win essentially secure their spot in the Big Dance, but it would also put them in the driver's seat to win the A-10 regular season title.
The Dayton Flyers are have had huge success this season and are currently on their longest winning streak this decade; winners of 9 straight. It appeared as though their winning streak was about to come to an end in their last contest as they trailed by one point until a three-pointer by Darrell Davis with just 21 seconds left and clutch foul shooting at the end of the game allowed them to escape with a 68-66 victory at Rhode Island. A big concern for the Flyers at the moment is the fact that the turnovers have been starting to pile up. They have turned the ball over at an increasing rate in each of their last 3 games, with their most recent being an 18 turnover performance against Rhode Island. The Flyers cannot afford to turn the ball over at such a rate against a team as balanced as the Redhawks.
Michael J. Hagan Arena has not been a venue that the Flyers have had much success in the past and is a venue that they have really struggled. It has been 16 years since Dayton has picked up a win on this floor and you can be assured that this year's St Joe's team is intent on keeping that record intact. Interestingly enough, Dayton's most recent loss came in another venue where they had had very little success as well, Tom Gola Arena, when they fell 61-57 against the lowly La Salle Explorers. We expect this to be a closely contested matchup between two of the top teams in the A-10, however the Redhawks hold a serious advantage at home and should come away with the victory.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Dayton is 0-4 ATS their last four trips to St Joes.
- St Joes is 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
- St Joes is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
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