December 24, 2016
There are two NFL picks this week, one on Saturday and one on Sunday.
Take Minnesota Vikings +7 spread against Green Bay Packers for 3% of the bankroll.
Everyone has written the Vikings off due to their recent slump but we're not ready to do that just yet. This is a team that presents wagering value now when their stock is low, not when they were on a 5-game winning streak like earlier in the season and laying big point-spreads. Now they are being spotted a full touchdown against an inconsistent Green Bay team that has had its own share of miscues. The Packers may well win this game but we don't believe Mike Zimmer's squad will just lay down for them. They'll have to fight for this 'W' in what should be a closely contested matchup. If that is the case, the points will likely come into play.
Let's not forget that Minnesota still has one of the most organized defenses in the league. They allow an average of just 312 yards per game which is a lot better than their opponents, the Packers (355 yards). Where this defense hasn't shined yet is in creating turnovers but that may not be an issue this Sunday. We believe Green Bay will turn the ball over a couple of times and that'll give Sam Bradford shorter field positions to work with. Aaron Rodgers is an elite QB but the running game still needs work. Ty Montgomery had a monster game last week but that came against a porous Chicago defense that has little to play for. He and his teammates will have a much tougher task against this stout Vikings crew.
Randall Cobb is likely to be absent and will be missed as he remains one of Rodgers' go-to options on key downs. On the other side, we expect Stefon Diggs to suit up for Minnesota despite being listed as 'questionable'. Green Bay needed a final second Mason Crosby field goal to seal the win against the Bears last week and might need more late heroics this time around. This is a matchup that could go either way in our opinion and where the point-spread should have been shorter. It's an NFC North divisional matchup between two teams that both need victories and aren't ready to quit.
Mike McCarthy's team are playing well right now and have put together a much-needed winning streak but what few have taken note of is how unusual their last two games have been. The Packers have forced a total of 10 turnovers in their last couple of games! That is an anomaly and unlikely to continue. They will need to rely on that kind of luck to record a blowout win here and we just don't see it happening. The Vikings normally take good care of the ball and will want to turn this into a grind-it-out type of game. There's great value in backing the live underdogs at this generous pointspread as they keep it close or cause an upset.
Other notable facts to consider:
- Vikings are 9-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons!
- Packers have turned the ball over just once in their last 4 games which is highly unusual.
- Vikings are 12-1 ATS in road games where the total is between 42.5 to 45 points over the last 3 seasons!
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