December 19, 2016
There are two college plays tonight.
#1: Take LSU -3 spread against Coll Charleston for 3% of the bankroll.
College of Charleston may have one of the nation's best defensive units, but we believe they are going to run into a buzzsaw tonight when they take on the LSU Tigers. LSU has been one of the more dominant teams at home this season, going 6-0 and averaging over 81 points per game on their home court and outscoring their opponents by an average of 13 points per game.
While Charleston has been tough on defense, they are not an overly proficient on the offensive side of the ball. As a team, they are averaging just 62 points per contest on 38% shooting from the field. Charleston has been able to win low scoring, defensive minded games this season, however with how LSU has been scoring the basketball at home this season, we believe they may be overmatched and unable to keep up on the scoreboard if this game is played in the high 60's or low 70's. The Tigers should also own the advantage on the glass as they have been the better rebounding team thus far this season.
This is also a big-time revenge game for the Tigers, who were absolutely embarrassed last season by this Charleston team in a lopsided 70-58 loss. In that particular matchup, LSU shot a miserable 31% from the field and 21% from deep. There is no question this team remembers that matchup and likely won't allow this mid-level team to surprise them once again. Despite their victory last season, the Cougars have struggled against SEC competition going just 6-42 all-time. In fact, their last three victories over the SEC have all come on their home floor. Being on the road in this contest, a place where they've struggled somewhat this season is likely going to be the deciding factor in this matchup. LSU should do enough in front of their home crowd to come away with the win and cover.
#2: Take Wisc Milwaukee +8 spread against Belmont for 3% of the bankroll.
This is a matchup where we believe recent perception is playing a role in the lines. The Milwaukee Panthers have struggled recently having lost 5 of their last 7 games while averaging just 63 points on 42% shooting from the field. That being said, the Panthers have played an extensive road schedule already this season which we believe has been cause for their troubles. When they have been at home however, they have been a completely different team having won 6 of their last 8. At home, they have scored an average of 73 points per game, which is 10 points more than they have on the road. They have also shot nearly 46% from the field which is nearly 3% better than their mark on the highway and are connecting on nearly 40% of their shots from downtown this season!
Belmont on the other hand has been consistent with their scoring this season, despite their struggles on the road. They are just 2-3 on the highway this season and dating back to last year have dropped 6 of their last 9 road games. The fact that they are near double-digit favorites in this matchup is somewhat surprising. They have shot the ball worse from the field than their opponents and have been inconsistent beyond the 3-point line, hitting just 29% from downtown. If Belmont's shooting woes continue, it will be difficult for them to not only cover this inflated spread, but they will be fortunate to win the game.
The Panthers have played some of their best basketball on their home court and after having played such a heavy road schedule as of late, we look for them to bounce back and pick up somewhat of a statement win in this contest. It's not too often that we see Wisc-Milwaukee listed as this big of a home underdog and we believe this is a bit of a mistake by the oddsmakers. The Panthers should keep this game competitive with a chance to win it outright at the end.
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