December 11, 2016
There are two picks on Sunday.
Take Green Bay Packers +3 spread against Seattle Seahawks for 3% of the bankroll.
Time is running out for the Packersand that is a fact that won't sit well with this ambitious squad. With an elite quarterback like Aaron Rodgers and good enough pieces around him, Green Bay had lofty expectations and was dreaming of a deep playoff run but is instead currently out of the post-season picture with a mediocre 6-6 record. And yet, having said that, it's too early to write them off just yet. They still control their own destiny and Rodgers calmy claimed that they are capable of running the table and winning the rest of their games, two weeks ago! While we don't believe that'll likely be the case, we do think they have a good chance of a victory today.
The Seahawks are flying high after avenging last year's playoffs loss to the Panthers, by crushing them 40-7! That was a game that meant a lot to them and they really got 'up for', to get back at Cam Newton and his antics last year. Now off that big win, it wouldn't surprise us if they had a 'let-down' game. After all, this is exactly what happened when they travelled to Tampa Bay as well, following impressive victories against the likes of Patriots, Bills and Eagles. Some members of this squad can get a bit complacent and that doesn't bode well for them in this matchup. That's becausae Green Bay is in a more desperate position than the visitors. Seattle has a healthy lead atop the NFC West division and with its next 3 games coming against divisional opponents, they know that those are the games that matter most. The Packers, on the other hand, need to pile up as many W's as they can, just to stay in the division and Wild Card hunt.
Not only does Mike McCarthy's side enjoy great home field advantage at Lambeau Field, weather conditions may well help them as well today. Windchill could take the temperatures as low as 18 degrees and with 80% chance of snow falling down, this could be typical Wisconsin weather in winter for the home side and very uncomfortable for the West coast team. Seattle players aren't as comfortable playing in these conditions as the Packers are and that gives the hosts a definite advantage. A team that has played plenty of games over the years in these types of frigid conditions.
For them to be spotted a field goal at home presents definite value as we actually believe they are capable of winning this game outright. Let's not forget that the Seahawks, as dominant as they are at Safeco Field, have been a below average team on the road, with just 2 wins on the season! This should be a closely contested battle but that is another reason siding with the points is wise as the 3 points may come into play even if Seattle does somehow leave Green Bay with a victory. The absence of safety Earl Thomas is a big loss for Pete Carroll's team as he's the epitome of leadership and composure at the back, as the last line of defence! He's an under-rated player and we expect Aaron Rodgers to take advantage of his replacement by keeping Packers' playoff aspirations alive.
Take Tennessee Titans -1 spread (buy half a point) against Denver Broncos for 3% of the bankroll.
Trevor Siemian is likely to be back under center for the defending champs after missing the last game due to an injury. He is a fairly under-rated QB in our opinion but was limited in practice all week and is unlikely to be at 100%. Sitting out a game and then having to quickly jump right back into competitive NFL action isn't easy either for a quarterback who was never a starter prior to this year. His timing and rhythm, as well as his understanding with the receivers might just be a bit off in the earlygoing while his foot injury could prevent him from getting 1st downs with his legs.
Marcus Mariota, on the other hand, will not be limited in any shape or form. His speed and agility makes him a true dual-threat QB and one that has improved a lot! Mariota is connecting with his receivers all over the field including big plays on deep routes. He's completed 22 of 48 pass attempts that traveled 20 or more yards. His passer rating of 117.7 is actually the highest among NFL quarterbacks since Week 5! He's also thrown at least two passing touchdowns in each of his last 8 starts! It's fair to say that he's been playing very well and has the self-belief and talent to cause problems for any defense. The fact that he can hurt teams with his arm or feet keeps defenses honest and prevents them from selling out.
The Tennessee Titans are a much improved team over recent years and sport a 6-6 record on the season. If they want to make the playoffs, they need to continue winning. They're in a tight divisional race with the Colts and the Texans and with those two foes facing each other this week, this is the perfect time for Mike Mularkey's side to pull away from one. They also need victories to stay in the Wild Card hunt, and we believe they have enough about them to surprise the casual fans and beat the reigning NFL champs.
Denver has a big game against the New England Patriots next week and some of the players may already be looking ahead to that. Looking past the Titans has been a problem for some teams this year and Gary Kubiak's side might have troubles with that as well. After all, on paper at least, it looks like the Broncos have the meatiest part of their schedule coming up after this game and not before it. They are not only going up against Bill Belichick's perennial contenders in Tom Brady and company next but will then have to contend with AFC West division leaders Kansas City Chiefs and the Oakland Raiders! With 3 huge games coming up for them after this one, it's natural for some members of the squad to have one eye on those matchups. That is a mistake in our opinion and one that is likely to cost them.
This is a bigger game for the Titans than it is for the Broncos. For the home side to beat last year's Super Bowl winners is as big as it gets! Denver, however, has bigger games coming up ahead and is also dealing with several injuries. Their defense has been vulnerable against the run and with Tennessee having both DeMarco Murray and former Alabama RB Derrick Henry at its disposal, expect them to rush for quite a few yards! Everyone knows how good this Denver defense is, but few have taken note of how solid the Titans stop-unit has been! They continue to play well and finally have the confidence that they lacked in recent years. This might be a closely contested battle but we believe the hosts have the advantage and will clinch an important victory.
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