Members Only

August 30, 2016

There is one pick tonight.

Take Atlanta Braves (-155) on the ML against San Diego Padres risking 4.65% to win 3%.
(Teheran and Jackson must start for wager to have action)

Two of the National League's poorest clubs will battle it out in the series opener. And while the Braves have the worst record in the league, they find themselves installed as fairly significant favorites tonight! There are good reasons behind that.

The starting pitching matchup gives a substantial edge to the hosts. Julio Teheran has been one of the better hurlers in the league this season and ranks #5 in the Majors with an impressive 1.03 WHIP (walks/hits per inning) which is an important category, because it shows how little opportunities opponents have against him. It means on average, only one hitter he faces per 3 outs reaches base against him and even then, it rarely leads to much. Teheran's 3.15 ERA is also note-worthy and once again shows that he's pitched very well for the most part this season. And yet his 3-9 record when it comes to wins and losses proves that he's rarely been given proper run support to come out victorious. That's not his fault and something that we expect his teammates to be conscious of tonight. They'll no doubt want to play solid defense behind him while getting to a very hittable Edwin Jackson to give their ace a much-needed and long overdue 'W'.

The veteran Edwin Jackson gets the ball for the Padres and it's safe to say he's past his prime. He walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out which is horrible when compared to the impressive 4.0 K/BB ratio that Teheran has on the season with 128 strike-outs and just 32 walks! The 32-year old former Cub has really struggled in his last two outings, having given up 13 earned runs in just 9 innings! After a promising start to his San Diego career, things have started to regress for Jackson and it wouldn't surprise us if the Padres ended up disappointed with him as many other Major league clubs have over the years. Let's not forget that this is his 11th MLB team in 14 years! There's a reason he's never really been able to settle in at any of his previous clubs and we don't believe things have suddenly changed.

Not only is the 25-year old Teheran arguably at his peak and the much better pitcher in this matchup, another factor that gives Atlanta an edge is their familiarity and past success against Jackson. Freddie Freeman, Gordon Beckham and Nick Markakis are just 3 of the Braves that have hit Edwin Jackson hard over the years and the same goes for former Padre, Matt Kemp! Kemp, will no doubt play with a chip on his shoulders against the team that surprisingly traded him mid-season to another bottom-dwelling club. Look for ATL bats to get to Jackson tonight and finally give Teheran some run support. If the Braves bullpen doesn't throw away the lead late in the game, we believe the visitors are up against it in this contest and will find it tough to walk away victorious.

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Padres are just 25-41 on the road this season.
  • Padres have lost 5 of their last 7 games in Atlanta.
  • San Diego hitters rank dead last in the Majors with just a .237 batting average!

Bankroll Tutorial:

Please refer to the important SPS Bankroll System instructions received via email upon joining.