August 12, 2016
There are 2 picks tonight.
#1: Take Cincinnati Reds (+105) on the ML against Milwaukee Brewers risking 3% to win 3.15%.
(Bailey and Nelson must start for wager to have action)
It's a battle between two last place teams in the NL Central as the Cincinnati Reds travel to take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the first of a 3 game set. In this particular matchup, we believe it will be the Reds who have a decided advantage.
Up until last month, Jimmy Nelson had actually been one of the few bright spots on a struggling Milwaukee team, however that time has come and gone. In his last 13 on the mound here has given up 18 earned runs and has lost four straight starts and has only made it to the 5th inning in one of those appearances. His ERA has gone up almost a full run over this recent stretch and we believed he was pitching well above his head earlier on it the season, it appears now that things are finally starting to regress back to the mean. Milwaukee has also only won 2 out of Nelson’s last 12 trips to the mound!
Meanwhile, Cincinnati Reds starter Homer Bailey is still trying to regain his form after coming back from Tommy John surgery. Injuries have really played Bailey over the last couple of seasons, so it's easy to forget that the right hander was once one of the hottest and most full of potential young prospects in the Majors. He certainly has the pitches in his arsenal to become that great pitcher and we expect now that he has had a couple of starts under his belt, that he will be able to contain this inconsistent Milwaukee offense tonight.
The Reds struggles on the road has been highly documented, however we do believe that they are the better overall team, with the better offense and also the better pitcher on the mound tonight. To get them as underdogs against an inconsistent Milwaukee team with a struggling pitcher on the mound shows a solid amount of value which makes the reward outweigh the risk in this situation. Cincinnati is the play.
#2: Take Miami Marlins (-133) on the ML against Chicago White Sox risking 3.99% to win 3%.
(Cashner and Rodon must start for wager to have action)
This is a matchup that we feel will strongly favor the Miami Marlins and yet we are getting very good odds given the advantages that we believe they will have in this contest. The Chicago White Sox have been an up and down team for a majority of the season and come into this contest having lost 7 of their last 10 games. They have not been able to get consistent production out of their offense and their pitching has been less than spectacular as well. Their bullpen has been one of the worst this season, especially on the road as they have a combined 5.00 and 1.604 WHIP over 158 innings. They also have an incredibly poor 154:93 strikeout to walk ratio which is a big reason why they are just 50% in save situations this season! Their pitching has given up a lot of free bases and teams have been able to capitalize on this fact and turn those 'freebies' into runs and we expect the Marlins to do just that tonight.
Carlos Rodon is coming off what can be considered a rare, well-pitched performance against the Baltimore Orioles in which he went 6 innings giving up just 5 hits and 1 earned run. That being said, his previous two starts were terrible, as he had given up 11 runs in his last 11.3 innings pitched! Rodon has also struggled mightily on the road this season going just 1-4 with a 4.29 ERA and WHIP of 1.510 in 50 innings pitched. The White Sox are just 1-7 in Rodon's 8 starts on the highway! As if that wasn't reason enough to stay away from the White Sox in this contest, the Marlins have absolutely crushed left handed pitchers this season as they are a league best 19-7 against southpaws this season!
The White sox have been struggling recently and have struggled on the road all season long. They are just 1-10 this season as a road underdog from +125 to +150. The Marlins currently hold a half game lead for the second NL Wild card spot and for them to have a chance to keep their spot in the standings, or better yet, give themselves a little bit of breathing room, this is exactly the type of series that they need to win against a struggling team. Miami has the advantage in this contest as they are still a team that has something to play for and we believe these are good odds to back the better team at home.
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