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August 11, 2016

One afternoon pick has been released.

Take Houston Astros (-105) on the ML against Minnesota Twins risking 3.15% to win 3%.
(Fister and Berrios must start for wager to have action)

Last night we were on the Twins and they quickly jumped all over the Astros early as they scored 5 runs off lefty Dallas Keuchel through the first two innings of the game! With Minnesota's early lead, it appeared as if it was destined to be a short night for Keuchel and a very long night for the Astros team. Fortunately for Houston, the officials called for a rain delay in the top of the 3rd inning and after a couple of hours of deliberation, elected to postpone the game, ultimately erasing Minnesota's efforts. Houston were given a rare 'do-over' for this contest and the officials ultimately saved them from what we believe would have been a loss. That was a crushing blow to a Minnesota team who doesn't have much to play for and we believe it will be hard for them to get motivated to start a game all over again in this short turnaround. With the Astros essentially given a free pass after last night’s debacle, we expect them to make the most of this opportunity and avoid another disastrous start.

We believed that Dallas Keuchel was going to struggle last night for multiple reasons and for all intents and purposes, we were correct. In this particular contest however, we believe Astros starter Doug Fister is poised to have a quality outing and will have the advantage on the mound against his counterpart., Jose Berrios. Fister has been very good as of late, giving up just a single earned run in his last 12 innings of work. He has been solid on the road all season long, going 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA and his team is 8-3 when he has taken the mound on the road this season. He also has a lot of experience against this Twins lineup and has had a fair amount of success against them in his career as he is 10-7 with a respectable 3.47 ERA and 1.280 WHIP in 135 innings pitched.

Meanwhile, the Twins have elected to start Jose Berrios for this contest in what will be his 7th start of the season. Berrios has not looked comfortable in the starting role this year. He was shifted back down to the Minors and with this being his second opportunity on the big stage (and likely his last), the pressure and nerves he will likely experience could have an effect on his performance in this contest.In 26 innings of work as a starter, he has given up an absurd 24 earned runs, including 7 homeruns overall! He has been extremely hittable this season and we expect that to be the case again this afternoon against what should be a very motivated Astros team.

It's not too often that a team is given a 'free pass' after facing what should have been a sure loss, however the Astros were granted one last night. We expect that they will use that performance as a wakeup call for this matchup and make the most of this rare opportunity by coming away with a victory. Houston has been solid in playing games during the day, going 21-16 on the season, while playing in the natural light has not been kind to Minnesota. The Twins are just 18-26 in games played during the day this season. The ‘Stros should be able to light up Berrios the way Keuchel was last night and turn the table on the Twins in the first game of their double-header. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Astros are 7-1 in Fister’s last 8 road starts.
  • Astros are 24-9 in their last 33 games against a team with a losing record.
  • Astros are 13-5 in Fister’s last 18 starts overall.
  • Twins are 9-25 in their last 34 home games against a right handed starter.

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