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August 2, 2016

There are two picks tonight.

#1: Take Colorado Rockies (+114) on the ML against LA Dodgers risking 3% to win 3.42%.
(Gray must start for wager to have action)

There is no question that Dodgers' pitcher Brandon McCarthy has been impressive since joining LA back in July. He is 2-1 at 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA and an impressive 0.84 WHIP in 26.1 innings pitched since switching uniforms and while those certainly are impressive statistics, we believe this is the particular matchup that will cause him to stumble. As a team the Colorado Rockies are collectively hitting a combined .329 against McCarthy, with multiple players logging homeruns and that could be the difference in this contest.

Rockies outfielder, Carlos Gonzalez continues to produce for his team and has collected eight RBI’s in his last six games played and is currently riding a 13 game hitting streak. He is having a tremendous season, hitting .317 with 21 home runs and 68 RBI’s. He has actually been even more impressive at home in Coors Field as he is hitting a blistering .359. As a team, they continue to produce on offense and is now averaging 5.10 runs per game, ranking them second in the league as they hit a solid (collective) .269 as a team. They have the ability to score runs on anyone and judging from the fact that last time McCarthy visited this stadium he gave up 6 earned runs (3 home runs) in just 6 innings of work, it could make for a difficult outing for McCarthy.

Jon Gray will make his 19th start of the season for the Rockies and will be looking for his third straight win. Gray was impressive the last time he toed the rubber, holding the tough Orioles lineup to just one run in seven innings of work. Gray has produced 5 quality starts in a row and tonight will look for number 6. Over his last 5 starts, he has surrendered just 7 earned runs which could make things difficult for the dodgers in this contest. Gray seemingly gets better and better each and every time he steps on the mound and his impressive 0.86 ERA over his last 21 innings of work is one of the best in the league. Even if the Dodgers offense does find some success against him, he should do enough to contain the damage and not let this game get out of hand.

The oddsmakers have listed a 'typical' Coors Field total for this game as they surely expect runs to be scored. If that is indeed the case, you have to believe that that would favor the Colorado offense. It is always dangerous to make the Rockies a home underdog, especially given how well they have played recently. They've beaten the oddsmakers this season and have a winning record when listed as home dogs. If Gray can keep this game within striking distance, that should give his offense enough of a chance to win it for him late.

#2: Take Tampa Bay Rays (-122) on the ML against KC Royals risking 3.66% to win 3%.
(Andriese and Ventura must start for wager to have action)

After being nearly no-hit last night by Danny Duffy and the Royals ultimately ending their 4 game winning streak, the Tampa Bay Rays will no doubt be out for revenge in tonight's contest. The Rays offense had been flourishing, scoring 19 runs during their winning streak, so to be held to just a single hit last night certainly can't sit well with this team. We expect their offense to come out looking to cause some damage and we believe they will do just that against a struggling Yordano Ventura.

Ventura has struggled mightily on the road this season going just 2-6 in 11 starts on the highway. His strikeout to walk ratio in just 43:26 and 12 of his 17 homeruns this season have come on the highway which has helped his ERA balloon up to 5.02 with a WHIP of 1.410! Ventura gives up quite a few baserunners per inning and if the Rays offense can string together those timely hits, they should be able to convert those into runs.

Matt Andriese will take the mound for Tampa and will be making his first start since June 25th. Andriese was having a solid season, compiling a 5-1 record with a 2.92 ERA in 8 games prior to being moved to the bullpen. In his bullpen appearances he produced a solid 2.38 ERA over 10 outings. Since the Rays traded away Matt Moore to the San Francisco Giants, he will now assume his spot in the starting rotation. While it has been a while since his last time in a starting role, Andriese should be able to settle into the familiar role rather quickly and if he can avoid giving up multiple runs in the early innings, should be able to produce a quality outing for his team.

The Rays should be able to get to Ventura early and allow Andriese time to settle in. Kansas City put in a rare winning performance but we expect things get back to normal and the Rays even up the series tonight at home. These are decent odds to lay with the team who is not only playing the better baseball at the moment, but also has the better starting pitcher on the mound. 

Other notable facts to consider:

  • Royals are 16-35 in their last 51 road games!
  • Royals are 5-11 in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Royals are 5-12 in their last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter!
  • Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.

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