August 1, 2016
A record number of 1-run losses have been our undoing! It is extremely unfortunate but sadly part of the game.
Take Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on the ML against San Diego Padres risking 3.45% to win 3%.
(Nelson and Cosart must start for wager to have action)
The Brew Crew have been playing extremely well recently, having won 7 of their last 9 games and surprisingly enough it has been their pitching that has got them there. The Brewers have allowed more than 4 runs just once during this streak and interestingly enough, the lone pitcher to have a poor outing for the Brew Crew is tonight's starter, Jimmy Nelson. Nelson was roughed up in his last time surrendering 6 earned runs to the Arizona Diamondbacks in just 4.1 innings of work. Nelson has been one of Milwaukee's most reliable starters this season and coming off what has been a rare poor start, we fully expect him to bounce back in this matchup, especially against an inconsistent San Diego offense. Nelson has had a fair share of success against San Diego in his career and owns an impressive 1.83 ERA over 19.7 innings of work. We expect to see him have success on the mound tonight and should do enough to keep the Friars’ offense in check.
The Padres on the other hand will start newly acquired Jarred Cosart for this evening's matchup. Cosart spent a few months in Triple-A trying to work on his control and the Marlins didn't see him as part of their long-term plans so they traded him to the Padres as part of the Andrew Cashner deal. He comes into this contest with a 5.95 ERA and has five more walks than he does strikeouts on the season. He also has just one quality start in his last 10 appearances. Cosart simply isn’t showing that he is capable of pitching at a Major League level and we believe that his control issues will hurt him in this contest. He had a solid showing in his last start against the Phillies, however we believe he played well over his head in that contest and will likely revert back to his old ways tonight. Given the way that Milwaukee has been playing as of late, they should be able to find success against him.
The Brewers have had their fair share of struggles on the road this season, but they should have a significant edge on the mound and even sport the better bullpen. San Diego has been able to keep games close due to their pitching but have continued to struggle to put runs on the board. We simply don't see Cosart coming out and pitching a gem in this contest and the runs that the Brewers score off him should be enough to carry them to a victory. At these odds, it's certainly worth backing the team who is playing better baseball at the moment.
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